Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-02-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70769 14296 189 723 244 20 2 0
OW 52 379 58 511 342 43 5 0
VODI 0 127 42 453 567 135 12 0
ODI 0 9 3 228 576 247 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 645 827 177 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 332 2293 6917 7777
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69891 14803 182 718 265 25 0 0
OW 62 391 62 453 362 58 0 0
VODI 4 157 37 390 747 119 0 0
ODI 1 36 12 190 562 312 4 0
CDI 0 16 0 121 479 904 24 0
VCDI 0 2 5 47 684 2692 6721 7562
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69946 14528 173 771 335 34 0 0
OW 52 401 62 402 367 46 0 0
VODI 0 141 24 363 658 173 5 0
ODI 0 38 5 144 630 338 13 0
CDI 0 15 2 67 521 884 63 0
VCDI 0 3 2 35 491 3144 8008 6216
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69364 14808 193 778 462 49 2 0
OW 52 366 50 338 354 75 6 0
VODI 0 178 29 294 559 187 10 0
ODI 0 76 14 124 484 411 26 0
CDI 0 16 16 113 558 900 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 534 3560 7766 6252
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69364 14842 193 796 462 60 2 0
OW 52 361 53 325 344 68 6 0
VODI 0 155 26 294 568 190 12 0
ODI 0 68 15 127 485 441 30 0
CDI 0 18 15 99 553 886 84 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 539 3537 7752 6252

Date: 2019-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69317 15011 182 790 360 58 3 0
OW 52 421 53 282 320 77 5 0
VODI 0 216 40 328 520 158 10 0
ODI 0 49 20 193 547 325 25 0
CDI 0 12 7 108 598 820 59 0
VCDI 0 1 1 12 455 3548 7925 6192
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69317 15078 188 804 402 69 2 0
OW 52 395 49 275 314 68 6 0
VODI 0 186 39 334 502 165 15 0
ODI 0 39 23 203 539 307 24 0
CDI 0 12 4 87 607 827 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 436 3550 7927 6192

Date: 2019-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70666 13984 152 541 240 34 0 0
OW 52 522 74 428 271 39 0 0
VODI 0 144 53 437 611 138 5 0
ODI 0 24 4 140 666 316 7 0
CDI 0 5 2 61 555 941 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 414 3894 8141 5451
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70666 14066 161 695 366 62 0 0
OW 52 381 60 294 330 72 1 0
VODI 0 168 49 349 529 218 7 0
ODI 0 33 13 171 519 353 20 0
CDI 0 26 0 64 501 779 85 0
VCDI 0 5 2 46 512 3878 8116 5451

Date: 2019-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70404 14262 170 625 282 72 0 0
OW 52 495 72 417 259 72 0 0
VODI 0 152 38 439 545 133 7 0
ODI 0 35 13 187 531 285 32 0
CDI 0 10 3 76 589 631 133 0
VCDI 0 0 0 83 647 3848 7809 5692
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70404 14085 185 775 376 99 0 0
OW 52 535 36 271 369 77 3 0
VODI 0 267 51 341 492 163 27 0
ODI 0 44 19 263 470 336 42 0
CDI 0 23 4 92 585 571 187 0
VCDI 0 0 1 85 561 3795 7722 5692

Date: 2019-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70245 14137 160 685 344 51 0 0
OW 52 636 61 315 283 67 0 0
VODI 0 272 53 476 480 134 3 0
ODI 0 66 18 234 538 318 12 0
CDI 0 24 4 101 647 631 127 0
VCDI 0 19 9 129 1091 3642 7594 5442
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70245 14026 177 806 484 77 0 0
OW 52 575 41 264 340 92 1 0
VODI 0 371 41 306 479 215 11 0
ODI 0 120 22 259 411 315 50 0
CDI 0 38 15 171 469 540 126 1
VCDI 0 24 9 134 1200 3604 7548 5441


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