Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2019-02-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 34 21
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 505 3468 41787
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 67 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 41 2 3
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 196 36 38
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 1242 10696 33464
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 18 119 39 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 77 965 7289 37328
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 36 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 67 21 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 115 1038 4583 39973
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 39 8 3
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 68 25 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 114 1028 4575 39975

Date: 2019-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 13 61 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 12 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 23 62 33 78
VCDI 0 0 0 0 184 1260 6782 37327
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 11 19 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 57 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 16 31 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 21 59 49 73
VCDI 0 0 0 0 182 1248 6760 37332

Date: 2019-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 29 28 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 45 49 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 50 178 66 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 104 1665 11186 32433
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 13 3 0
OW 0 0 0 0 29 43 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 17 89 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 28 40 44 3
CDI 0 0 0 0 46 121 92 29
VCDI 0 0 0 0 108 1614 11116 32417

Date: 2019-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 6 31 32 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 36 51 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 45 40 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 45 76 49 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 1124 9891 34388
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 27 0 0
OW 0 0 0 6 62 60 6 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 10 45 49 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 23 24 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 44 44 38 25
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 1123 9820 34378

Date: 2019-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
OW 0 2 2 49 95 22 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 33 59 64 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 51 63 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 46 128 134 39
VCDI 0 0 0 54 322 1181 9549 33913
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 61 33 0 0
OW 0 2 1 40 69 53 1 0
VODI 0 0 1 37 40 47 46 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 41 41 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 47 119 101 40
VCDI 0 0 0 66 324 1165 9520 33912


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