Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-02-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70769 14504 191 731 244 20 2 0
OW 52 424 59 524 342 43 5 0
VODI 0 167 44 460 568 135 12 0
ODI 0 32 3 231 606 257 34 0
CDI 0 24 3 87 657 908 226 43
VCDI 0 2 3 58 442 3147 15621 75368
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69891 14967 184 730 265 25 0 0
OW 62 428 63 465 364 58 0 0
VODI 4 181 39 418 751 186 0 0
ODI 1 54 14 197 577 358 6 3
CDI 0 36 1 131 511 1157 61 45
VCDI 0 5 10 86 822 4268 20443 69181
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69946 14678 175 787 343 34 0 0
OW 52 427 64 416 374 46 0 0
VODI 0 151 30 393 669 174 5 0
ODI 0 40 7 170 648 341 13 0
CDI 0 15 2 80 556 1044 112 88
VCDI 0 3 2 41 616 4421 18232 71853
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69364 14869 203 831 480 49 2 0
OW 52 368 56 366 371 76 6 0
VODI 0 178 29 317 592 189 10 0
ODI 0 76 14 133 516 451 30 0
CDI 0 16 16 113 607 993 135 36
VCDI 0 0 0 20 694 4929 17562 72299
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69364 14901 204 846 479 60 2 0
OW 52 365 58 352 361 69 6 0
VODI 0 155 26 318 600 198 12 0
ODI 0 68 15 139 516 484 38 3
CDI 0 18 15 99 606 978 141 36
VCDI 0 0 0 26 698 4898 17546 72296

Date: 2019-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69317 15163 188 803 361 58 3 0
OW 52 461 56 299 321 77 5 0
VODI 0 237 46 358 540 219 10 0
ODI 0 54 21 223 572 362 25 0
CDI 0 13 8 128 654 933 128 79
VCDI 0 1 1 30 738 5421 21594 67489
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69317 15221 194 818 404 69 2 0
OW 52 435 52 287 327 87 6 0
VODI 0 215 44 365 511 222 15 0
ODI 0 45 25 235 568 343 30 0
CDI 0 13 5 113 665 937 147 74
VCDI 0 0 0 23 711 5412 21565 67494

Date: 2019-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70666 14095 159 563 240 34 0 0
OW 52 551 78 451 271 39 0 0
VODI 0 166 58 484 649 166 9 0
ODI 0 30 5 173 735 367 13 0
CDI 0 5 2 81 659 1160 150 26
VCDI 0 0 0 17 617 6069 24841 63367
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70666 14160 167 717 366 75 3 0
OW 52 423 64 312 359 115 2 0
VODI 0 191 53 383 553 307 13 0
ODI 0 40 16 212 562 394 64 3
CDI 0 28 0 89 583 935 195 33
VCDI 0 5 2 56 748 6009 24736 63357

Date: 2019-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70404 14279 174 669 289 72 0 0
OW 52 505 75 444 308 104 0 0
VODI 0 159 40 470 610 184 8 0
ODI 0 35 13 207 611 330 41 1
CDI 0 10 3 97 754 781 188 112
VCDI 0 0 0 86 919 6591 26042 61381
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70404 14100 189 821 389 126 0 0
OW 52 547 39 300 454 137 9 0
VODI 0 274 53 369 533 208 76 0
ODI 0 44 19 283 527 364 79 0
CDI 0 23 4 108 690 655 237 72
VCDI 0 0 1 92 898 6572 25878 61422

Date: 2019-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70245 14137 161 725 362 51 0 0
OW 52 638 65 403 391 89 0 0
VODI 0 272 53 539 570 198 3 0
ODI 0 66 18 271 614 383 32 0
CDI 0 24 4 128 741 790 279 40
VCDI 0 19 9 183 1612 6279 23125 63477
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70245 14026 178 847 565 110 0 0
OW 52 577 44 338 423 145 2 0
VODI 0 371 42 373 551 262 57 0
ODI 0 120 22 293 484 360 85 0
CDI 0 38 15 193 572 715 251 68
VCDI 0 24 9 205 1695 6198 23044 63449


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