Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-02-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-02-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72660 13418 111 530 163 36 2 0
OW 60 792 50 350 209 33 1 0
VODI 0 536 50 363 375 74 0 0
ODI 0 187 26 218 520 179 35 0
CDI 0 67 26 223 818 529 177 2
VCDI 0 38 9 275 1547 3883 22247 66229
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71818 13786 117 541 307 25 0 0
OW 66 725 58 316 211 16 0 0
VODI 0 503 41 373 402 85 0 0
ODI 0 244 30 244 530 208 12 0
CDI 0 103 28 281 759 749 132 29
VCDI 0 96 19 372 1519 4532 22629 65142
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72211 13961 122 510 324 18 0 0
OW 51 703 65 325 144 54 0 0
VODI 0 424 50 402 419 75 0 0
ODI 0 211 27 431 564 214 6 0
CDI 0 67 20 346 883 911 129 25
VCDI 0 11 4 146 1325 4390 20858 66622
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71556 14285 109 452 316 25 0 0
OW 56 688 72 352 150 33 1 0
VODI 4 456 53 426 412 144 14 0
ODI 2 158 21 387 529 197 23 0
CDI 0 68 20 325 702 889 96 35
VCDI 0 19 8 216 1228 4670 21474 66377
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71554 14343 114 474 310 24 0 0
OW 57 704 65 314 149 47 1 0
VODI 5 368 56 491 393 115 18 0
ODI 2 139 19 331 552 192 21 0
CDI 0 79 18 322 723 884 113 41
VCDI 0 41 11 226 1210 4696 21455 66371

Date: 2019-02-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71121 14325 137 490 347 39 0 0
OW 60 597 56 427 206 61 2 0
VODI 4 342 47 421 459 161 7 0
ODI 2 152 29 289 575 152 43 1
CDI 0 75 8 277 682 697 115 81
VCDI 0 22 7 194 1276 5184 23361 64517
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71119 14377 136 525 346 39 0 0
OW 62 577 55 399 195 81 2 0
VODI 5 334 52 424 453 137 9 0
ODI 1 113 23 291 589 148 40 4
CDI 0 77 9 249 625 648 110 93
VCDI 0 35 9 210 1337 5241 23367 64502

Date: 2019-02-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70293 15174 150 561 297 25 0 0
OW 51 599 95 560 181 44 0 0
VODI 0 189 59 651 651 74 6 0
ODI 0 47 4 261 956 285 107 14
CDI 0 44 9 97 940 1037 254 126
VCDI 0 4 1 51 496 4257 20510 67888
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70293 15026 157 601 393 59 0 0
OW 51 530 66 472 220 52 0 0
VODI 0 288 61 422 455 125 90 0
ODI 0 68 17 352 618 153 60 1
CDI 0 57 8 162 750 607 172 126
VCDI 0 88 9 172 1085 4726 20555 67901

Date: 2019-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70072 15223 208 865 326 39 0 0
OW 51 351 65 551 313 47 4 0
VODI 0 147 44 492 609 131 10 0
ODI 0 22 11 218 652 232 11 0
CDI 0 3 1 125 748 1092 126 114
VCDI 0 0 0 36 703 3868 22235 67303
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70072 15080 202 827 395 90 1 0
OW 51 348 48 482 315 74 3 0
VODI 0 233 52 328 571 142 12 0
ODI 0 44 20 321 551 284 61 2
CDI 0 35 5 215 514 785 238 69
VCDI 0 6 2 114 1005 4034 22071 67346

Date: 2019-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70769 14504 191 731 244 20 2 0
OW 52 424 59 524 342 43 5 0
VODI 0 167 44 460 568 135 12 0
ODI 0 32 3 231 606 257 34 0
CDI 0 24 3 87 657 908 226 43
VCDI 0 2 3 58 442 3147 15621 75368
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70770 14510 207 836 331 45 6 0
OW 51 401 51 490 382 62 6 0
VODI 0 178 29 403 675 193 13 0
ODI 0 58 13 201 607 388 50 2
CDI 0 6 3 115 460 823 245 115
VCDI 0 0 0 46 404 2999 15580 75294


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