Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-01-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72397 13616 133 525 324 129 38 0
OW 68 495 61 450 184 81 6 0
VODI 0 237 42 394 395 166 14 0
ODI 0 23 14 193 489 179 65 0
CDI 0 5 0 73 562 563 186 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 429 2201 7246 7084
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71605 13996 145 751 251 88 17 0
OW 52 570 47 329 312 60 22 0
VODI 0 299 45 306 549 210 11 0
ODI 0 62 18 149 503 212 65 0
CDI 0 10 9 105 639 431 212 0
VCDI 0 1 0 82 1071 1917 9536 4413
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72462 13603 115 446 122 38 0 0
OW 53 615 71 418 182 20 6 0
VODI 0 252 52 488 390 67 12 0
ODI 0 35 20 203 637 96 34 0
CDI 0 2 2 106 715 322 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 50 1068 2462 6303 7575
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73490 12596 88 415 211 50 4 0
OW 62 830 67 282 164 41 0 0
VODI 0 394 41 437 275 64 3 0
ODI 0 103 19 239 478 135 38 0
CDI 0 38 8 193 742 291 69 0
VCDI 0 22 10 214 1282 2519 5884 7302
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73481 12633 89 418 210 39 4 0
OW 71 768 67 267 170 38 0 0
VODI 0 414 40 441 248 77 0 0
ODI 0 96 13 249 432 136 23 0
CDI 0 45 14 181 781 304 98 0
VCDI 0 27 10 224 1311 2506 5873 7302

Date: 2019-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72034 13562 110 569 177 30 1 0
OW 62 707 49 313 217 21 0 0
VODI 0 451 41 381 428 57 0 0
ODI 0 191 26 201 516 183 18 0
CDI 0 73 28 213 708 565 93 0
VCDI 0 62 16 322 1348 2660 6139 6528
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72033 13646 107 583 157 23 1 0
OW 63 650 52 291 203 21 0 0
VODI 0 410 41 391 433 58 0 0
ODI 0 175 29 208 469 166 3 0
CDI 0 73 22 195 713 547 104 0
VCDI 0 92 19 331 1419 2701 6143 6528

Date: 2019-02-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72017 13781 116 519 268 4 0 0
OW 51 774 61 350 194 15 0 0
VODI 0 370 65 554 504 28 0 0
ODI 0 158 20 297 797 112 0 0
CDI 0 77 11 252 914 731 128 0
VCDI 0 4 4 55 902 2715 6172 6080
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72006 13372 119 590 288 15 0 0
OW 62 712 45 244 196 14 0 0
VODI 0 503 38 289 404 27 0 0
ODI 0 224 29 252 482 93 0 0
CDI 0 134 22 254 682 508 116 0
VCDI 0 219 24 398 1527 2948 6184 6080

Date: 2019-02-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72035 13752 123 454 316 19 0 0
OW 58 629 64 349 149 35 0 0
VODI 4 326 53 496 368 72 0 0
ODI 2 144 28 381 582 120 0 0
CDI 0 50 14 255 839 720 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 95 915 2928 6722 5982
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72036 13279 120 544 371 25 0 0
OW 58 696 53 224 180 31 0 0
VODI 3 536 51 303 342 61 0 0
ODI 2 197 28 293 411 116 0 0
CDI 0 99 15 264 565 569 42 0
VCDI 0 94 15 402 1300 3092 6701 5982

Date: 2019-02-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71217 14119 126 424 327 81 0 0
OW 57 572 62 391 145 70 1 0
VODI 5 351 51 375 423 104 6 0
ODI 2 116 18 286 493 191 5 0
CDI 0 33 14 276 631 642 41 0
VCDI 0 10 3 144 1022 3246 6118 6902
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71218 13812 148 581 468 87 1 0
OW 57 551 45 250 247 101 3 0
VODI 4 481 22 234 322 165 7 0
ODI 2 187 25 246 367 221 5 0
CDI 0 111 15 203 386 592 39 0
VCDI 0 59 19 382 1251 3168 6116 6902


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