Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-01-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-01-25:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72408 13851 135 547 324 129 38 0 OW 68 523 61 470 191 81 6 0 VODI 0 256 44 415 418 166 14 0 ODI 0 34 15 204 517 187 95 0 CDI 0 14 1 82 594 703 277 31 VCDI 0 1 0 42 490 3870 23158 66588	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-27:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71605 14216 148 772 252 88 17 0 OW 52 592 48 347 324 60 22 0 VODI 0 319 46 322 571 214 14 0 ODI 0 76 19 159 536 232 88 0 CDI 0 21 9 112 728 568 345 43 VCDI 0 3 0 89 1307 4149 25848 62687	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-29:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72473 13831 116 461 124 38 0 0 OW 53 640 77 433 190 20 6 0 VODI 0 270 55 516 408 67 12 0 ODI 0 43 21 219 678 104 34 0 CDI 0 5 2 125 783 451 109 43 VCDI 0 0 0 50 1159 4327 21902 67203	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-31:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73506 12820 89 419 215 50 4 0 OW 62 861 70 291 167 41 0 0 VODI 0 414 43 457 291 64 3 0 ODI 0 118 20 258 498 140 38 0 CDI 0 43 9 214 811 386 98 5 VCDI 0 22 10 214 1368 3731 19499 69699	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73497 12860 90 423 213 39 4 0 OW 71 799 70 275 173 38 0 0 VODI 0 431 42 462 266 77 0 0 ODI 0 111 14 266 450 142 23 0 CDI 0 50 15 203 853 398 127 6 VCDI 0 27 10 224 1395 3718 19488 69698

Date: 2019-02-02:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72034 13796 114 571 178 30 1 0 OW 62 747 50 317 222 21 0 0 VODI 0 487 41 390 437 57 0 0 ODI 0 219 29 208 542 212 20 0 CDI 0 80 33 245 838 697 152 6 VCDI 0 62 16 338 1604 4137 22100 65955	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72033 13884 112 585 160 23 1 0 OW 63 686 52 297 208 21 0 0 VODI 0 448 41 399 441 58 0 0 ODI 0 202 30 214 496 190 4 0 CDI 0 79 29 223 848 688 173 6 VCDI 0 92 19 351 1668 4174 22095 65955

Date: 2019-02-04:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72036 14047 116 519 268 4 0 0 OW 51 816 62 356 194 18 0 0 VODI 0 409 65 563 507 45 2 0 ODI 0 172 25 313 817 153 10 0 CDI 0 79 13 291 993 1008 190 24 VCDI 0 4 4 60 1008 4303 21273 66230	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72025 13602 119 590 288 15 0 0 OW 62 752 45 249 196 18 0 0 VODI 0 547 39 298 404 74 14 0 ODI 0 255 29 256 495 135 30 0 CDI 0 149 28 274 731 709 224 31 VCDI 0 222 25 435 1673 4580 21207 66223

Date: 2019-02-06:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72066 13996 123 454 316 19 0 0 OW 58 689 64 349 149 35 0 0 VODI 4 385 53 498 369 106 3 0 ODI 2 176 30 393 588 173 3 0 CDI 0 68 19 295 911 918 45 60 VCDI 0 7 3 159 1171 4688 21141 66462	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72067 13497 120 544 371 25 0 0 OW 58 744 53 224 180 34 0 0 VODI 3 599 52 303 342 70 4 0 ODI 2 230 29 305 418 190 5 0 CDI 0 135 18 287 606 750 110 49 VCDI 0 116 20 485 1587 4870 21073 66473

Date: 2019-02-08:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71217 14360 129 429 327 81 0 0 OW 57 627 66 401 150 95 1 0 VODI 5 404 51 377 423 163 11 0 ODI 2 171 18 299 514 244 24 0 CDI 0 92 16 304 693 827 140 68 VCDI 0 36 15 226 1347 5202 23296 64140	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71218 14037 151 588 468 87 1 0 OW 57 602 49 258 247 101 3 0 VODI 4 541 22 235 327 203 10 0 ODI 2 226 25 254 368 265 12 1 CDI 0 158 17 221 407 724 94 32 VCDI 0 126 31 480 1637 5232 23352 64175

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