Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-01-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-01-18:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73804 13474 109 414 168 167 12 0 OW 74 531 75 435 155 69 0 0 VODI 0 195 40 522 407 94 2 0 ODI 0 58 22 218 581 201 34 0 CDI 0 28 6 157 505 735 141 14 VCDI 0 0 1 134 1073 4735 23331 64327	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-20:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72934 13871 135 533 189 143 28 0 OW 68 452 72 434 155 35 2 0 VODI 0 170 37 484 420 109 10 0 ODI 0 55 11 188 629 177 15 0 CDI 0 20 2 91 656 634 88 34 VCDI 0 3 0 40 830 5645 26066 61583	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-22:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72467 14184 145 699 291 120 36 0 OW 68 451 81 419 238 33 18 0 VODI 0 160 27 508 450 105 9 0 ODI 0 40 4 156 588 257 50 0 CDI 0 17 2 67 563 681 166 55 VCDI 0 0 0 21 451 4997 20120 68304	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-24:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72731 13762 123 527 305 117 20 0 OW 67 484 72 388 236 67 8 0 VODI 0 178 32 428 488 147 17 0 ODI 0 36 4 166 519 259 55 0 CDI 0 22 2 69 526 846 199 11 VCDI 0 3 1 37 446 3967 21499 68184	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72731 13817 132 572 329 121 21 0 OW 67 460 64 372 228 57 8 0 VODI 0 152 32 408 458 168 15 0 ODI 0 35 3 165 540 261 46 0 CDI 0 21 2 70 541 842 184 11 VCDI 0 0 1 28 424 3954 21524 68184

Date: 2019-01-26:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72015 13974 143 670 345 102 53 0 OW 70 611 44 441 226 77 21 0 VODI 0 345 44 384 446 176 35 0 ODI 0 68 25 180 514 193 106 0 CDI 0 13 4 131 629 599 321 14 VCDI 0 1 0 57 833 4090 22703 66345	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72016 14017 144 725 362 114 55 0 OW 69 602 42 388 236 76 19 0 VODI 0 325 46 348 430 168 34 0 ODI 0 58 25 232 483 191 120 1 CDI 0 10 3 118 688 592 288 10 VCDI 0 0 0 52 794 4096 22723 66348

Date: 2019-01-28:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71888 14228 140 604 131 34 1 0 OW 52 596 62 424 257 33 13 0 VODI 0 215 54 488 559 93 31 0 ODI 0 18 15 175 729 196 29 0 CDI 0 0 0 96 848 980 146 39 VCDI 0 0 0 8 616 4304 22191 66755	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71888 13925 158 706 202 68 35 0 OW 52 600 40 314 258 32 23 0 VODI 0 362 34 348 507 106 19 0 ODI 0 115 18 182 525 230 31 0 CDI 0 46 11 126 607 819 145 42 VCDI 0 9 10 119 1041 4385 22158 66752

Date: 2019-01-30:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73165 13222 105 395 191 43 0 0 OW 52 707 79 369 175 28 0 0 VODI 1 263 55 481 365 64 7 0 ODI 0 69 16 235 585 151 35 0 CDI 0 11 10 143 725 401 95 63 VCDI 0 7 2 111 867 4331 19799 69625	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73159 12986 131 574 324 80 15 0 OW 57 641 54 313 224 45 20 0 VODI 2 370 39 303 510 103 20 0 ODI 0 124 11 183 461 186 24 1 CDI 0 85 13 115 443 436 152 43 VCDI 0 73 19 246 946 4168 19705 69644

Date: 2019-02-01:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72660 13418 111 530 163 36 2 0 OW 60 792 50 350 209 33 1 0 VODI 0 536 50 363 375 74 0 0 ODI 0 187 26 218 520 179 35 0 CDI 0 67 26 223 818 529 177 2 VCDI 0 38 9 275 1547 3883 22247 66229	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72624 13154 127 765 348 67 3 0 OW 73 738 32 176 321 63 12 0 VODI 23 492 46 318 448 146 26 0 ODI 0 223 14 171 472 231 25 2 CDI 0 159 11 91 593 499 169 68 VCDI 0 272 42 438 1450 3728 22227 66161

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