Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-01-17

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-01-21

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 105 6 20 4 0 0 0
OW 0 14 4 13 11 3 0 0
VODI 0 5 1 31 22 7 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 17 70 32 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 85 180 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 539 4321 31340
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 95 4 20 2 0 0 0
OW 0 17 4 7 10 3 0 0
VODI 0 10 3 13 14 8 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 22 12 13 6 0
CDI 0 1 0 14 24 9 11 0
VCDI 0 0 1 12 179 728 4318 31340

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 39 1206 1886
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 39 1206 1884

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 259 1910 7786
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 271 1910 7786

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 12 506 5126
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 12 506 5136

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7227
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 46
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7200

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 40 1689 3597
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 40 1688 3597

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 88 3 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 38 8 58 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 5 49 76 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 8 72 66 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 19 152 47 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 256 3746 1565
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 72 0 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 6 22 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 4 37 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 3 39 46 7 0 0
CDI 0 1 3 23 67 38 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 56 431 3788 1568

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4834 3482 50 230 80 0 0 0
OW 0 111 17 104 105 29 0 0
VODI 0 17 1 65 147 57 2 0
ODI 0 9 0 10 99 98 7 0
CDI 0 6 0 8 44 238 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 615 837 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4834 3503 49 214 78 4 0 0
OW 0 64 16 87 72 18 0 0
VODI 0 29 2 86 127 78 10 0
ODI 0 11 1 18 104 82 6 0
CDI 0 11 0 3 72 121 1 0
VCDI 0 7 0 9 40 734 840 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6187 2768 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 151 20 39 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 8 89 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 2 57 65 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 102 20 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 123 443 1343 121
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6187 2599 2 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 175 11 27 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 125 8 60 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 60 5 41 41 2 0 0
CDI 0 37 5 33 53 19 1 0
VCDI 0 9 1 74 193 442 1342 121

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8097 3373 42 193 172 102 16 0
OW 0 85 15 49 13 17 8 0
VODI 0 22 9 97 41 13 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 86 13 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 96 151 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 133 13 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8097 3406 44 226 193 118 27 0
OW 0 59 12 38 21 12 6 0
VODI 0 15 10 65 43 20 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 85 109 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 74 58 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 112 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 35 3 25 6 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 7 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 4 13 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 15 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 40 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 407 1860 3324
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 35 3 24 5 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 7 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 15 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 15 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 435 1864 3324

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 70 59 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 628 4142 3687
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 73 45 23
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 625 4156 3665

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11587 4259 33 114 70 0 0 0
OW 0 101 29 116 102 6 0 0
VODI 0 10 12 136 241 51 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 238 134 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 157 372 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 104 1413 886 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11587 4293 49 169 110 2 0 0
OW 0 67 20 108 145 12 0 0
VODI 0 10 5 82 192 54 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 164 97 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 135 317 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 166 1494 858 0


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