Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-01-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75755 12908 129 551 273 109 0 0
OW 71 580 61 410 127 1 0 0
VODI 0 361 46 476 351 21 0 0
ODI 0 146 14 253 508 45 16 100
CDI 0 65 12 180 721 212 93 95
VCDI 0 45 5 224 1625 5447 20612 64400
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75382 13068 131 465 269 149 2 0
OW 71 682 51 412 128 12 0 0
VODI 0 389 42 410 351 38 0 0
ODI 0 166 13 288 345 103 61 0
CDI 0 129 22 252 439 296 248 77
VCDI 0 107 20 403 1746 5231 22874 62176
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74577 13579 131 545 282 140 0 0
OW 71 486 66 421 229 21 0 0
VODI 0 221 54 443 457 49 0 0
ODI 0 70 16 298 464 313 11 0
CDI 0 60 9 206 543 645 195 27
VCDI 0 95 13 204 1492 5865 27014 57736
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73831 13668 121 481 214 188 0 0
OW 73 427 81 433 226 53 0 0
VODI 0 164 26 483 491 93 0 0
ODI 0 62 11 158 591 267 32 0
CDI 0 36 6 121 516 909 128 29
VCDI 0 6 3 169 909 4519 23025 64498
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73831 13655 130 512 229 195 0 0
OW 73 444 69 413 207 41 0 0
VODI 0 155 29 479 510 98 0 0
ODI 0 64 12 160 602 241 31 0
CDI 0 37 4 109 501 913 133 19
VCDI 0 8 4 172 898 4541 23021 64508

Date: 2019-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73484 13639 110 421 201 129 12 0
OW 74 500 64 411 160 40 4 0
VODI 0 222 41 428 402 151 1 0
ODI 0 55 14 226 535 205 6 0
CDI 0 26 9 123 519 835 106 30
VCDI 0 2 1 84 1041 5152 24601 62984
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73484 13617 114 501 237 131 13 0
OW 74 512 58 333 158 35 3 0
VODI 0 216 43 427 379 157 0 0
ODI 0 65 13 243 505 199 7 0
CDI 0 31 10 95 524 792 106 37
VCDI 0 3 1 94 1055 5198 24601 62977

Date: 2019-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72468 14133 139 597 332 102 16 0
OW 68 506 93 386 272 55 8 0
VODI 0 136 36 471 556 131 9 0
ODI 0 26 3 149 645 347 17 0
CDI 0 6 0 64 519 1250 185 35
VCDI 0 0 0 7 379 4784 22459 65659
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72467 14026 151 662 388 124 27 0
OW 69 404 69 296 263 45 6 0
VODI 0 218 32 348 442 160 18 0
ODI 0 93 9 186 467 312 32 0
CDI 0 50 8 83 445 665 135 73
VCDI 0 16 2 99 698 5363 22476 65621

Date: 2019-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72590 14084 133 552 320 123 41 0
OW 65 482 77 436 186 50 18 0
VODI 0 155 30 480 461 126 10 0
ODI 0 48 3 173 538 251 37 0
CDI 0 30 2 56 496 667 181 15
VCDI 0 3 0 42 471 4009 22355 67252
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72588 13864 149 637 340 157 59 0
OW 67 452 50 362 229 44 7 0
VODI 0 251 26 331 425 174 21 0
ODI 0 98 11 186 405 260 96 1
CDI 0 57 5 115 435 571 136 45
VCDI 0 80 4 108 638 4020 22323 67221

Date: 2019-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72408 13851 135 547 324 129 38 0
OW 68 523 61 470 191 81 6 0
VODI 0 256 44 415 418 166 14 0
ODI 0 34 15 204 517 187 95 0
CDI 0 14 1 82 594 703 277 31
VCDI 0 1 0 42 490 3870 23158 66588
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72409 13731 167 774 382 150 44 0
OW 67 446 30 341 261 80 0 0
VODI 0 294 26 219 405 242 86 0
ODI 0 101 16 161 387 212 141 1
CDI 0 79 10 134 441 389 223 44
VCDI 0 28 7 131 658 4063 23094 66574


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