Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-01-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-01-04:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75377 13901 198 809 365 101 40 0 OW 70 303 62 611 311 44 7 0 VODI 0 68 21 417 699 139 11 0 ODI 0 3 6 152 706 227 7 0 CDI 0 1 0 51 753 694 102 85 VCDI 0 0 0 8 448 4177 19944 66130	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-06:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75117 13760 176 723 335 115 35 0 OW 71 437 64 530 250 54 0 0 VODI 0 177 41 510 564 121 3 0 ODI 0 53 15 238 720 126 0 0 CDI 0 18 13 127 981 355 53 49 VCDI 0 1 2 88 841 4386 15641 70258	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-08:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75138 13565 178 762 400 231 0 0 OW 71 360 67 632 276 37 0 0 VODI 0 75 17 435 626 70 0 0 ODI 0 19 7 152 693 185 1 0 CDI 0 14 6 110 650 700 80 51 VCDI 0 4 0 50 863 4582 19563 66378	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-10:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74941 13366 160 650 345 136 0 0 OW 71 462 59 467 262 11 0 0 VODI 0 275 35 393 568 95 0 0 ODI 0 62 11 179 588 169 31 40 CDI 0 18 8 104 697 466 110 125 VCDI 0 3 1 104 874 5742 21669 63751	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74941 13391 162 702 398 136 0 0 OW 71 403 51 427 249 11 0 0 VODI 0 301 37 356 519 82 0 0 ODI 0 67 15 199 599 158 34 49 CDI 0 20 8 104 679 460 100 127 VCDI 0 4 1 109 890 5772 21676 63740

Date: 2019-01-12:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75909 12752 123 496 289 121 0 0 OW 71 702 62 367 108 9 0 0 VODI 0 400 46 425 290 32 0 0 ODI 0 172 30 322 326 82 0 100 CDI 0 95 9 272 489 182 83 163 VCDI 0 69 13 354 2098 5447 18276 66264	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75909 12910 136 561 311 122 0 0 OW 71 554 54 345 116 9 0 0 VODI 0 393 39 382 282 29 0 0 ODI 0 174 31 311 309 89 0 120 CDI 0 85 9 289 461 196 72 148 VCDI 0 74 14 348 2121 5428 18287 66259

Date: 2019-01-14:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75093 13307 107 508 275 119 0 0 OW 71 682 86 436 158 7 0 0 VODI 0 249 52 562 489 30 0 0 ODI 0 78 13 312 537 194 0 0 CDI 0 80 13 206 779 597 140 10 VCDI 0 58 8 123 1144 5814 26362 58349	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75093 13118 136 538 325 124 0 0 OW 71 524 51 433 145 8 0 0 VODI 0 412 36 367 415 34 0 0 ODI 0 160 17 202 367 168 35 0 CDI 0 102 17 222 480 326 230 56 VCDI 0 138 22 385 1650 6101 26237 58303

Date: 2019-01-16:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74281 13488 124 520 269 182 20 0 OW 72 395 74 455 257 47 0 0 VODI 0 160 17 466 499 120 2 0 ODI 0 71 13 171 477 353 13 1 CDI 0 40 7 129 528 816 103 91 VCDI 0 39 7 242 1270 5185 23891 62153	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 74280 13061 143 615 308 235 20 0 OW 73 468 28 393 272 63 0 0 VODI 0 329 31 330 490 150 0 0 ODI 0 161 11 117 443 243 0 0 CDI 0 82 17 130 388 661 54 103 VCDI 0 92 12 398 1399 5351 23955 62142

Date: 2019-01-18:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73804 13474 109 414 168 167 12 0 OW 74 531 75 435 155 69 0 0 VODI 0 195 40 522 407 94 2 0 ODI 0 58 22 218 581 201 34 0 CDI 0 28 6 157 505 735 141 14 VCDI 0 0 1 134 1073 4735 23331 64327	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73804 13258 128 516 213 226 12 0 OW 74 507 48 418 187 82 5 0 VODI 0 322 35 387 420 127 12 0 ODI 0 126 25 165 466 230 15 0 CDI 0 58 13 172 446 608 128 22 VCDI 0 15 4 222 1157 4728 23348 64319

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