Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2019-01-03

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-01-07

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 133 9 100 7 0 0 0
OW 0 27 3 151 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 3 50 74 3 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 18 56 13 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 13 65 30 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 114 564 3462 31932
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 91 3 69 3 0 0 0
OW 0 36 4 57 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 5 86 32 4 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 81 58 6 0 0
CDI 0 9 0 25 60 11 0 0
VCDI 0 1 1 21 201 589 3463 31932

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 68 385 2680
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 68 385 2680

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 233 9749
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 233 9749

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5653
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5654

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7244
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7246

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 28
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 293 4987
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 25
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 299 4990

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 459 14 35 0 0 0 0
OW 0 75 16 93 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 42 7 110 127 2 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 47 236 50 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 167 231 27 2
VCDI 0 0 0 10 81 664 2648 1130
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 304 7 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 182 12 64 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 72 12 112 88 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 6 41 184 15 0 0
CDI 0 6 2 50 129 111 31 10
VCDI 0 0 1 43 224 821 2644 1122

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5653 3576 65 313 108 1 0 0
OW 0 36 9 99 85 13 0 0
VODI 0 15 2 21 119 35 0 0
ODI 0 9 0 5 80 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 11 30 134 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 190 634 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5653 3508 59 270 98 10 0 0
OW 0 79 10 89 51 14 0 0
VODI 0 30 5 55 93 39 0 0
ODI 0 11 2 18 78 42 0 0
CDI 0 8 2 11 72 76 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 38 267 637 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6054 2716 12 65 0 0 0 0
OW 0 36 14 101 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 5 98 55 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 94 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 114 33 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 208 1070 960 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6054 2669 11 30 0 0 0 0
OW 0 58 13 76 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 3 108 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 59 62 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 24 112 23 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 269 1083 960 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8873 2816 38 199 180 157 34 0
OW 0 40 10 117 35 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 37 115 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 75 61 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 52 115 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8873 2852 47 297 261 166 34 0
OW 0 4 1 32 70 41 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 45 83 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 41 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 36 22 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 165 4 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 23 9 19 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 1 45 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 60 15 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 81 19 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 700 3018 1499
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 135 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 33 2 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 9 25 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 43 9 0 0 0
CDI 0 3 2 49 18 3 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 167 716 3020 1499

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 61 31 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 357 3494 4639
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 40 53 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 378 3472 4644

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12987 3700 28 66 2 0 0 0
OW 0 178 19 142 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 10 198 190 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 48 255 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 250 118 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 175 1309 435 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12987 3680 28 79 1 0 0 0
OW 0 182 12 90 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 12 136 103 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 5 98 156 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 249 52 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 367 1383 438 0


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