Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2019-01-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78387 12589 106 497 252 94 0 0
OW 63 408 48 190 98 12 0 0
VODI 0 214 48 303 164 19 0 0
ODI 0 56 16 243 231 22 0 0
CDI 0 13 2 184 437 89 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 50 821 2345 7051 4048
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77349 12733 110 503 294 141 6 0
OW 63 591 63 254 135 28 0 0
VODI 0 145 44 407 211 30 0 0
ODI 0 21 7 250 286 50 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 133 493 151 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 661 2078 7935 3913
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75977 13171 147 758 359 137 67 0
OW 65 200 51 482 172 32 2 0
VODI 0 54 16 383 427 75 0 0
ODI 0 11 2 96 598 59 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 34 540 271 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 471 1996 6503 5934
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75569 13164 179 725 373 136 51 0
OW 67 149 33 429 240 50 9 0
VODI 0 47 20 314 455 116 14 0
ODI 0 4 5 126 484 146 5 0
CDI 0 1 0 57 580 353 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 484 2211 6648 5828
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75569 13167 178 729 379 137 53 0
OW 67 153 34 419 238 37 11 0
VODI 0 43 19 332 429 109 10 0
ODI 0 2 6 129 485 137 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 589 350 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 496 2242 6655 5828

Date: 2019-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75213 13154 181 736 278 86 37 0
OW 71 175 51 556 205 47 5 0
VODI 0 52 15 386 449 87 7 0
ODI 0 9 3 117 575 82 5 0
CDI 0 0 3 34 762 322 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 299 2012 6459 6612
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75213 13144 180 777 287 87 38 0
OW 71 190 50 470 196 43 5 0
VODI 0 54 18 437 411 79 5 0
ODI 0 2 4 109 563 73 7 0
CDI 0 0 1 36 786 294 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 325 2060 6458 6612

Date: 2019-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75350 12829 151 744 297 158 34 0
OW 70 322 61 600 204 22 0 0
VODI 0 91 20 436 543 54 0 0
ODI 0 13 2 157 557 161 1 0
CDI 0 2 2 49 566 404 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 581 3087 5887 5621
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75349 12673 146 737 363 176 34 0
OW 71 369 38 333 163 55 0 0
VODI 0 163 34 416 284 126 8 0
ODI 0 35 13 296 386 95 0 0
CDI 0 16 4 150 537 165 4 0
VCDI 0 1 1 61 1015 3269 5893 5621

Date: 2019-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74923 13060 162 687 372 176 0 0
OW 71 222 48 495 296 45 0 0
VODI 0 59 7 306 531 150 0 0
ODI 0 14 6 78 450 211 0 0
CDI 0 10 2 44 529 399 7 0
VCDI 0 3 0 28 455 2538 6582 6134
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74923 12957 158 726 465 187 0 0
OW 71 245 36 294 285 84 0 0
VODI 0 94 15 316 372 149 0 0
ODI 0 35 10 151 420 157 0 0
CDI 0 22 4 106 493 299 4 0
VCDI 0 15 2 45 598 2643 6585 6134

Date: 2019-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75747 12538 124 530 273 109 0 0
OW 71 462 50 370 120 1 0 0
VODI 0 269 33 376 318 21 0 0
ODI 0 131 11 200 404 44 0 0
CDI 0 55 12 162 578 103 0 0
VCDI 0 39 4 202 1449 3034 5375 5885
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75747 12171 120 605 356 109 0 0
OW 71 489 41 275 204 5 0 0
VODI 0 310 29 266 287 25 0 0
ODI 0 194 13 196 279 44 0 0
CDI 0 166 11 128 449 146 1 0
VCDI 0 164 20 370 1567 2983 5374 5885


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