Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2019-01-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78393 13861 114 505 252 94 0 0
OW 63 918 55 220 99 12 0 0
VODI 0 631 75 449 197 19 0 0
ODI 0 129 32 387 335 66 6 0
CDI 0 51 8 270 813 465 86 43
VCDI 0 16 9 154 1761 6474 28566 51420
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77349 13830 116 509 294 141 6 0
OW 63 1029 83 323 136 28 0 0
VODI 0 380 60 602 236 30 0 0
ODI 0 117 28 451 427 95 0 0
CDI 0 32 9 237 784 530 171 45
VCDI 0 1 3 71 1443 6420 30946 50023
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75977 14474 167 798 359 137 67 0
OW 65 429 76 636 173 32 2 0
VODI 0 108 37 549 526 75 0 0
ODI 0 23 10 208 840 95 3 0
CDI 0 2 2 93 798 611 70 37
VCDI 0 0 0 15 717 5211 24909 58717
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75569 14043 199 796 390 136 51 0
OW 67 252 60 576 299 50 9 0
VODI 0 67 24 441 729 124 14 0
ODI 0 6 5 161 663 217 5 0
CDI 0 1 0 73 703 808 62 49
VCDI 0 0 0 17 645 4576 20097 65064
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75569 14036 202 811 398 137 53 0
OW 67 263 56 560 329 37 11 0
VODI 0 66 24 450 653 124 10 0
ODI 0 4 6 170 658 201 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 730 717 52 59
VCDI 0 0 0 10 661 4695 20110 65054

Date: 2019-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75213 13929 192 765 278 86 37 0
OW 71 363 75 672 207 47 5 0
VODI 0 108 28 594 561 90 7 0
ODI 0 16 5 211 744 113 6 0
CDI 0 1 4 82 940 471 44 56
VCDI 0 0 0 19 554 3970 17833 68651
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75213 13896 197 819 287 87 38 0
OW 71 372 69 577 196 43 5 0
VODI 0 140 28 631 541 84 5 0
ODI 0 8 8 207 700 125 11 0
CDI 0 1 2 90 959 412 42 40
VCDI 0 0 0 19 601 4026 17831 68667

Date: 2019-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75350 13572 170 785 297 158 34 0
OW 70 415 80 722 225 22 0 0
VODI 0 143 28 559 691 56 0 0
ODI 0 20 5 208 811 211 1 0
CDI 0 2 3 89 759 741 92 38
VCDI 0 0 0 17 672 4927 15562 69513
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75349 13246 157 761 363 176 34 0
OW 71 574 54 414 171 55 0 0
VODI 0 249 46 547 387 126 8 0
ODI 0 56 20 340 588 110 0 0
CDI 0 26 7 208 676 338 96 35
VCDI 0 1 2 110 1270 5310 15551 69516

Date: 2019-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74923 13445 170 749 378 176 0 0
OW 71 368 62 548 322 45 0 0
VODI 0 93 19 410 624 154 0 0
ODI 0 20 7 109 612 231 0 0
CDI 0 11 3 54 692 646 75 107
VCDI 0 3 0 48 656 4904 21310 65003
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74923 13255 163 768 469 187 0 0
OW 71 369 43 323 302 84 0 0
VODI 0 234 36 446 447 151 0 0
ODI 0 43 11 189 602 171 0 103
CDI 0 24 6 124 599 433 50 202
VCDI 0 15 2 68 865 5130 21335 64805

Date: 2019-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75755 12908 129 551 273 109 0 0
OW 71 580 61 410 127 1 0 0
VODI 0 361 46 476 351 21 0 0
ODI 0 146 14 253 508 45 16 100
CDI 0 65 12 180 721 212 93 95
VCDI 0 45 5 224 1625 5447 20612 64400
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75755 12450 125 620 356 109 0 0
OW 71 586 47 303 210 5 0 0
VODI 0 415 33 312 314 25 0 0
ODI 0 302 25 276 343 45 0 65
CDI 0 177 16 175 562 243 68 195
VCDI 0 175 21 408 1820 5408 20653 64335


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