Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-12-27

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-12-31

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 123 20 202 84 0 0 0
OW 0 6 3 32 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 32 71 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 76 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 82 58 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 132 787 6852 28248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 99 14 180 86 0 0 0
OW 0 21 6 48 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 4 27 70 8 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 21 70 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 72 51 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 148 787 6851 28248

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 98 1066 1959
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 98 1066 1959

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 91 1451 8431
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 99 1452 8431

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 33 1657 3956
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 35 1661 3956

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 51 38
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 57 2093 4999
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 61 59
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 54 2071 4978

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 12 7 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 52 41 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 54 482 2797 1855
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 5 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 68 37 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 462 2805 1856

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1191 12 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 192 21 128 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 64 23 240 61 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 10 116 243 28 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 223 166 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 193 771 2532 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 629 6 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 385 10 25 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 260 16 116 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 139 7 152 120 28 1 0
CDI 0 39 27 160 235 102 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 87 344 835 2551 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5984 3791 53 210 87 4 0 0
OW 0 49 7 62 32 9 0 0
VODI 0 8 0 37 66 11 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 16 69 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 40 80 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 257 413 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5984 3626 40 183 102 14 0 0
OW 0 196 15 66 36 10 0 0
VODI 0 30 5 54 45 17 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 15 38 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 41 52 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 258 414 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6035 2736 15 49 1 0 0 0
OW 0 62 8 75 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 2 102 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 40 93 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 140 22 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 460 1724 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6035 2602 7 38 2 0 0 0
OW 0 127 11 38 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 6 94 30 1 0 0
ODI 0 20 1 58 73 1 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 44 121 27 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 105 455 1723 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9411 2640 32 157 142 104 53 0
OW 0 59 11 31 13 20 0 0
VODI 0 6 4 46 34 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 25 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 62 37 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 30 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9411 2632 31 165 163 140 53 0
OW 0 56 7 17 16 24 0 0
VODI 0 17 9 26 11 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 11 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 61 22 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 42 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 232 4 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 44 9 17 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 7 36 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 0 26 5 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 23 33 1 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 155 707 2837 1605
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 175 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 46 4 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 9 26 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 33 4 31 12 0 0 0
CDI 0 10 3 27 26 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 152 708 2839 1605

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 67 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 790 4575 3126
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 57 7 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 800 4587 3108

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13378 3903 40 87 0 0 0 0
OW 0 79 23 176 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 7 227 149 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 258 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 232 111 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 378 801 294 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13378 3943 53 160 17 0 0 0
OW 0 53 13 213 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 4 118 174 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 133 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 183 69 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 457 831 295 0


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