Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-12-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-12-21:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 79852 12956 115 369 260 148 23 0 OW 61 531 71 312 124 38 4 0 VODI 0 240 51 627 492 183 18 0 ODI 0 99 7 446 836 431 64 11 CDI 0 72 4 92 777 877 445 158 VCDI 0 73 14 152 886 4723 20155 60251	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-23:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 79748 12746 102 379 309 168 15 0 OW 62 769 47 222 105 36 3 0 VODI 0 450 76 419 212 37 40 0 ODI 0 154 24 367 566 237 58 0 CDI 0 99 14 267 1003 892 180 36 VCDI 0 96 16 208 1468 5966 21138 58314	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-25:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 79043 14103 122 498 404 97 0 0 OW 62 580 54 298 106 36 0 0 VODI 0 231 67 471 295 51 0 0 ODI 0 57 25 331 480 140 2 0 CDI 0 23 6 281 846 776 177 13 VCDI 0 2 3 112 1372 6885 27736 51263	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-27:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 79497 13179 95 464 276 110 0 0 OW 63 824 60 243 92 7 0 0 VODI 0 454 79 504 191 22 0 0 ODI 0 130 22 315 392 93 3 0 CDI 0 49 15 266 740 474 111 75 VCDI 0 3 6 160 1721 5734 27857 52722	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 79498 13248 100 462 268 111 0 0 OW 62 796 50 250 103 6 0 0 VODI 0 433 84 504 204 26 0 0 ODI 0 113 23 323 378 87 4 0 CDI 0 47 16 245 719 446 105 94 VCDI 0 2 4 168 1740 5764 27862 52703

Date: 2018-12-29:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 78097 13674 121 498 269 115 8 0 OW 63 907 54 261 128 25 1 0 VODI 0 431 65 563 222 42 0 0 ODI 0 129 40 404 437 96 2 0 CDI 0 11 10 226 774 484 136 31 VCDI 0 0 0 48 1561 6683 30641 49791	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 78097 13741 116 503 280 114 9 0 OW 63 831 62 254 128 31 0 0 VODI 0 447 69 588 207 48 0 0 ODI 0 109 31 376 418 100 2 0 CDI 0 24 12 216 739 448 142 36 VCDI 0 0 0 63 1619 6704 30635 49786

Date: 2018-12-31:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76598 14623 176 718 314 108 53 0 OW 63 491 82 521 98 29 0 0 VODI 0 156 45 720 416 53 0 0 ODI 0 24 10 264 781 86 7 0 CDI 0 0 1 99 838 613 168 41 VCDI 0 0 0 16 1002 5364 28291 54179	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76596 13713 152 737 370 154 53 0 OW 65 884 66 415 157 34 0 0 VODI 0 449 53 461 353 31 0 0 ODI 0 194 13 340 462 110 13 0 CDI 0 54 30 273 761 460 138 79 VCDI 0 0 0 112 1346 5464 28315 54141

Date: 2019-01-02:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75832 14131 150 853 290 150 18 0 OW 66 335 80 691 224 32 6 0 VODI 0 87 21 560 566 95 2 0 ODI 0 18 5 183 786 152 0 1 CDI 0 3 2 60 795 660 51 30 VCDI 0 0 0 21 812 4663 24405 60212	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75831 13399 126 761 301 179 26 0 OW 67 772 63 492 281 73 0 0 VODI 0 313 48 648 653 74 0 0 ODI 0 74 16 302 519 177 9 9 CDI 0 16 5 127 674 586 186 187 VCDI 0 0 0 38 1045 4663 24261 60047

Date: 2019-01-04:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75377 13901 198 809 365 101 40 0 OW 70 303 62 611 311 44 7 0 VODI 0 68 21 417 699 139 11 0 ODI 0 3 6 152 706 227 7 0 CDI 0 1 0 51 753 694 102 85 VCDI 0 0 0 8 448 4177 19944 66130	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75376 13099 151 623 239 97 55 0 OW 71 659 53 416 289 58 3 0 VODI 0 427 58 535 668 120 2 0 ODI 0 76 17 257 734 299 5 0 CDI 0 15 8 166 664 559 135 265 VCDI 0 0 0 51 688 4249 19911 65950

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