Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-12-20

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-12-24

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 523 16 118 27 0 0 0
OW 0 35 7 30 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 3 41 62 4 0 0
ODI 0 8 7 52 48 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 50 57 64 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 242 1424 7168 26812
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 464 14 115 39 0 0 0
OW 0 54 4 17 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 5 35 52 7 0 0
ODI 0 24 4 38 38 22 0 0
CDI 0 9 6 47 42 51 0 0
VCDI 0 2 1 63 258 1427 7168 26812

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 150 641 2342
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 150 641 2342

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 226 9756
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 226 9756

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 40 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 367 2624 2591
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 35 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 372 2623 2591

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 46 1017 6166
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 46 1017 6166

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 80 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 859 3602 759
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 91 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 848 3602 759

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1262 20 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 153 23 139 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 16 199 127 2 0 0
ODI 0 35 1 71 165 57 5 0
CDI 0 27 3 39 188 173 48 0
VCDI 0 0 8 38 229 918 2244 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 602 4 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 345 7 21 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 344 23 117 15 2 0 0
ODI 0 126 13 145 156 38 8 0
CDI 0 101 11 75 153 110 36 0
VCDI 0 48 13 151 406 1000 2253 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7081 3312 14 49 3 0 0 0
OW 0 31 8 56 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 2 63 54 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 12 73 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 105 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 320 59 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7081 3258 14 60 5 0 0 0
OW 0 54 4 38 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 6 32 56 8 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 39 26 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 43 57 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 362 59 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6450 2456 3 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 104 17 62 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 8 126 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 98 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 117 46 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 90 815 1171 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6450 2414 7 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 130 12 52 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 6 109 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 51 72 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 119 34 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 113 824 1171 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9313 2656 33 190 276 139 0 0
OW 0 29 7 29 37 33 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 27 28 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 44 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 83 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9313 2674 40 219 328 175 0 0
OW 0 14 1 15 25 37 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 14 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 19 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 21 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 324 5 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 30 6 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 7 22 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 29 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 25 19 5 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 286 707 2620 1665
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 223 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 52 2 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 77 11 7 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 5 21 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 7 3 31 12 3 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 293 709 2620 1665

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 81 35 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 202 649 181 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 139 881 2527 3845
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 14 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 40 34 86 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 151 442 192 25
VCDI 0 0 0 7 231 1080 2418 3825

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14461 3729 25 66 2 0 0 0
OW 0 70 25 48 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 14 97 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 74 263 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 317 81 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 237 396 227 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14461 3633 23 54 2 0 0 0
OW 0 100 8 36 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 28 58 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 7 83 105 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 72 323 49 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 403 426 227 0


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