Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-12-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80662 11485 131 417 152 121 0 0
OW 60 175 45 323 100 14 0 0
VODI 0 119 20 292 298 9 0 0
ODI 0 30 4 128 350 56 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 115 448 351 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 615 2179 5466 4912
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80784 11358 116 326 115 110 7 0
OW 71 223 52 359 70 11 0 0
VODI 0 149 18 314 262 8 0 0
ODI 0 41 9 154 362 20 0 0
CDI 0 6 1 102 441 112 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 711 2929 7539 2273
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80367 11961 104 321 146 88 0 0
OW 60 249 60 250 94 6 0 0
VODI 0 76 21 399 215 12 0 0
ODI 0 14 6 171 353 48 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 57 500 124 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 466 2262 5677 4972
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80557 11496 104 333 174 123 22 0
OW 66 282 38 242 126 11 0 0
VODI 0 97 33 337 189 59 0 0
ODI 0 21 4 230 254 44 1 0
CDI 0 11 2 85 445 94 0 0
VCDI 0 6 2 36 559 2088 5896 5033
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80556 11529 112 364 180 121 21 0
OW 67 266 31 232 116 8 1 0
VODI 0 87 32 326 212 55 0 0
ODI 0 19 4 233 244 47 1 0
CDI 0 8 2 75 450 81 0 0
VCDI 0 4 2 33 545 2107 5896 5033

Date: 2018-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79632 12032 95 370 303 161 15 0
OW 62 401 54 181 106 30 3 0
VODI 0 138 38 372 146 31 16 0
ODI 0 39 15 233 234 32 1 0
CDI 0 22 6 110 373 86 2 0
VCDI 0 4 3 85 706 2041 6295 4627
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79632 12118 105 396 324 161 15 0
OW 62 345 53 194 88 27 1 0
VODI 0 126 32 347 157 28 13 0
ODI 0 31 14 227 237 33 6 0
CDI 0 16 6 115 364 73 2 0
VCDI 0 0 1 72 698 2059 6295 4627

Date: 2018-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79097 12634 94 436 308 139 0 0
OW 61 279 69 217 98 33 0 0
VODI 0 84 34 370 187 24 0 0
ODI 0 14 11 207 310 61 0 0
CDI 0 3 2 105 298 250 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 47 727 2151 6337 4413
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79096 12322 97 463 374 175 0 0
OW 62 377 30 151 102 37 0 0
VODI 0 247 54 248 157 61 0 0
ODI 0 50 19 224 165 66 0 0
CDI 0 16 9 180 275 137 0 0
VCDI 0 2 1 116 855 2182 6337 4413

Date: 2018-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79713 11824 93 432 321 97 0 0
OW 62 370 40 201 92 12 0 0
VODI 0 193 45 254 152 42 0 0
ODI 0 56 22 197 206 73 0 0
CDI 0 16 3 178 274 180 8 0
VCDI 0 3 2 90 779 1699 5992 5379
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79712 11694 93 398 325 108 0 0
OW 63 418 35 194 77 15 0 0
VODI 0 267 49 252 172 48 0 0
ODI 0 67 19 231 155 76 2 0
CDI 0 14 7 180 284 136 8 0
VCDI 0 2 2 97 811 1720 5990 5379

Date: 2018-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78387 12589 106 497 252 94 0 0
OW 63 408 48 190 98 12 0 0
VODI 0 214 48 303 164 19 0 0
ODI 0 56 16 243 231 22 0 0
CDI 0 13 2 184 437 89 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 50 821 2345 7051 4048
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78387 12259 97 456 325 104 0 0
OW 63 558 39 165 97 15 0 0
VODI 0 308 52 287 130 38 0 0
ODI 0 122 26 240 194 63 0 0
CDI 0 30 5 204 413 130 3 0
VCDI 0 3 1 115 844 2231 7048 4048


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