Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-12-13

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-12-17

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 645 10 102 17 0 0 0
OW 0 53 4 40 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 4 37 67 0 0 0
ODI 0 27 7 46 64 6 0 0
CDI 0 4 3 61 150 161 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 45 356 2225 7404 25270
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 603 7 98 18 0 0 0
OW 0 52 3 20 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 8 39 51 0 0 0
ODI 0 44 2 31 57 2 0 0
CDI 0 17 8 48 61 21 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 95 473 2369 7416 25270

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 267 1839 985
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 268 1840 985

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 43 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 407 2649 6856
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 11 50 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 397 2651 6856

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 12 88 58 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 522 202 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 254 2367 2116
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 46 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 80 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 107 87 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 650 2469 2116

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 451 6791
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 451 6792

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 180 2293 2826
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 180 2294 2826

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1092 21 78 0 0 0 0
OW 0 146 33 197 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 7 139 147 11 0 0
ODI 0 11 2 49 144 50 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 20 210 246 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 91 938 2444 165
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 831 14 66 0 0 0 0
OW 0 171 15 84 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 171 10 133 64 0 0 0
ODI 0 76 14 66 141 16 0 0
CDI 0 23 9 73 113 113 13 0
VCDI 0 6 1 63 302 1116 2450 165

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7291 3203 28 67 1 0 0 0
OW 0 37 5 53 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 37 59 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 9 68 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 123 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 180 82 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7291 3159 21 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 61 11 51 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 2 57 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 19 59 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 38 79 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 249 85 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6448 2526 12 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 57 16 89 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 5 131 33 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 112 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 120 34 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 83 709 1250 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6448 2529 21 68 5 0 0 0
OW 0 40 5 82 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 6 83 57 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 34 77 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 103 31 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 92 709 1250 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10295 2098 24 71 91 92 0 0
OW 0 31 16 25 3 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 71 21 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 80 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 17 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10295 2114 37 81 98 98 0 0
OW 0 15 4 66 9 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 49 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 40 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 9 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 299 18 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 1 39 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 15 40 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 64 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 92 8 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 91 1029 3872 158
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 278 14 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 29 4 33 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 29 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 46 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 83 3 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 143 1034 3869 158

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 139 11 137 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 91 13 340 258 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 406 316 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 286 1197 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1988 3206 78
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 10 2 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 52 0 5 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 118 10 61 42 31 0 0
ODI 0 50 8 278 403 495 10 0
CDI 0 17 4 141 259 787 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 38 286 2193 3161 78

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14640 3383 35 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 53 12 105 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 2 116 222 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 42 478 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 235 90 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 467 227 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14640 3211 30 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 124 14 64 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 87 2 60 185 0 0 0
ODI 0 53 3 77 246 4 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 68 368 69 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 117 496 227 0


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