Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-12-06

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-12-10

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 755 12 122 30 0 0 0
OW 0 51 9 40 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 8 92 81 5 0 0
ODI 0 55 11 163 93 23 0 0
CDI 0 58 10 117 130 65 4 0
VCDI 0 12 1 59 346 1679 9571 23194
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 733 12 109 28 0 0 0
OW 0 43 2 34 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 10 43 52 3 0 0
ODI 0 18 2 57 61 12 0 0
CDI 0 33 3 66 65 35 3 0
VCDI 0 136 22 284 485 1722 9572 23194

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 26 2 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 509 1409 1181
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 533 1411 1180

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 156 1264 8562
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 156 1264 8562

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 516 15 85 40 0 0 0
OW 0 227 22 128 118 15 0 0
VODI 0 18 8 123 180 73 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 124 172 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 44 452 149 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 421 1658 1052
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 475 6 38 22 0 0 0
OW 0 250 27 107 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 12 176 160 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 178 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 99 337 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 700 1806 1052

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 24 531 6671
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 26 537 6678

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 40 26 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 219 1939 3054
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 30 23 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 229 1942 3056

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1155 9 55 1 0 0 0
OW 0 373 21 60 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 125 12 215 77 1 0 0
ODI 0 47 11 80 103 32 0 0
CDI 0 22 2 72 194 151 6 0
VCDI 0 8 2 19 124 1114 2219 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 796 9 57 10 0 0 0
OW 0 310 3 29 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 259 15 62 45 0 0 0
ODI 0 139 5 87 37 24 0 0
CDI 0 121 12 70 64 73 2 0
VCDI 0 105 13 196 344 1201 2223 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8230 2475 18 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 80 8 47 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 7 141 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 76 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 30 25 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 95 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8230 2296 9 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 145 8 22 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 118 12 69 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 92 27 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 66 4 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 64 119 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6503 2467 9 46 0 0 0 0
OW 0 63 14 79 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 5 91 89 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 17 120 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 87 150 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 714 1160 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6503 2414 10 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 79 9 66 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 42 7 86 54 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 35 85 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 21 110 124 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 87 743 1160 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9648 2241 11 126 192 202 19 0
OW 0 87 19 75 6 10 0 0
VODI 0 9 4 51 49 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 64 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 32 74 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9648 2330 28 177 203 217 19 0
OW 0 7 6 54 14 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 22 61 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 42 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 23 62 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 416 8 34 1 0 0 0
OW 0 18 4 27 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 2 40 54 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 19 73 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 12 64 50 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 73 588 3855 427
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 390 5 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 24 3 25 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 5 20 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 1 26 41 0 0 0
CDI 0 7 2 23 87 36 20 0
VCDI 0 0 1 18 122 605 3836 427

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 58 6 14 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 6 101 252 115 42 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 167 453 748 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 136 582 452 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 589 3758 1053
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 46 8 32 67 17 12 0
OW 0 23 2 73 139 130 290 0
VODI 0 3 2 17 124 241 388 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 57 143 210 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 44 360 311 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 157 848 3789 1053

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15165 3003 26 62 31 0 0 0
OW 0 31 11 103 112 3 0 0
VODI 0 18 2 39 278 32 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 42 161 107 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 157 166 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 548 74 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15165 2848 19 43 33 0 0 0
OW 0 99 10 63 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 6 57 199 6 0 0
ODI 0 27 1 35 159 21 0 0
CDI 0 28 3 48 179 147 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 123 682 74 0


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