Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-12-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82487 15334 175 769 316 124 0 0
OW 50 754 106 828 722 60 5 0
VODI 0 276 52 718 1178 463 26 0
ODI 0 140 30 379 802 680 80 0
CDI 0 58 16 270 842 1030 110 34
VCDI 0 14 4 115 1309 6970 26222 43500
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83541 13484 139 765 308 171 23 0
OW 50 1012 87 582 653 50 5 0
VODI 0 489 55 653 925 519 18 0
ODI 0 244 29 388 637 726 105 0
CDI 0 120 19 345 787 1117 197 19
VCDI 0 75 16 312 1624 6793 25669 44297
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82433 14925 177 898 399 175 0 0
OW 61 892 90 687 289 66 0 0
VODI 0 367 47 666 845 264 8 0
ODI 0 154 16 323 1012 575 78 0
CDI 0 153 25 240 716 1090 718 5
VCDI 0 63 18 328 1582 7957 24611 44095
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82377 13240 127 775 387 344 0 0
OW 93 1216 77 603 413 189 0 0
VODI 0 541 77 692 633 225 4 0
ODI 0 193 21 298 857 413 32 0
CDI 0 172 16 225 1004 1102 261 70
VCDI 0 114 31 437 1290 7635 25699 45165
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82408 13425 136 842 437 327 0 0
OW 62 1025 71 569 398 203 0 0
VODI 0 582 71 608 605 230 1 0
ODI 0 174 25 320 808 387 33 0
CDI 0 168 20 221 975 1054 181 60
VCDI 0 102 26 470 1361 7707 25781 45175

Date: 2018-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81827 12684 111 502 294 278 24 0
OW 59 1057 84 573 486 456 59 0
VODI 0 548 57 706 656 310 89 0
ODI 0 332 29 328 727 300 130 0
CDI 0 188 24 266 809 1183 269 27
VCDI 0 157 29 476 1437 6436 27645 45396
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81830 12778 118 550 325 294 32 0
OW 56 965 76 498 391 407 59 0
VODI 0 593 62 691 715 359 77 0
ODI 0 282 24 352 691 303 104 0
CDI 0 196 22 256 762 1152 262 45
VCDI 0 152 32 504 1525 6448 27682 45378

Date: 2018-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81351 13029 108 564 295 202 19 0
OW 55 988 114 573 330 28 0 0
VODI 0 273 54 893 1101 244 42 0
ODI 0 115 26 335 981 827 753 0
CDI 0 80 13 220 882 1784 655 20
VCDI 0 20 3 82 676 6681 27438 45194
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81347 12328 106 534 363 234 31 0
OW 59 980 70 473 315 140 290 0
VODI 0 567 69 552 721 297 388 0
ODI 0 200 16 352 687 298 210 0
CDI 0 189 21 246 737 1211 374 12
VCDI 0 241 36 510 1442 7586 27614 45202

Date: 2018-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80842 12771 141 537 185 143 22 0
OW 69 619 74 574 230 20 0 0
VODI 0 410 73 831 719 115 0 0
ODI 0 88 28 449 1258 552 66 3
CDI 0 30 7 318 1686 1910 321 74
VCDI 0 0 0 186 1643 8665 26607 44782
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80839 12136 108 427 276 171 22 0
OW 72 903 96 544 276 210 30 0
VODI 0 472 56 741 738 537 100 0
ODI 0 232 22 309 915 612 112 3
CDI 0 146 30 309 1287 1042 286 26
VCDI 0 29 11 565 2229 8833 26466 44830

Date: 2018-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80662 12610 147 486 163 121 0 0
OW 60 480 74 472 207 27 0 0
VODI 0 307 46 634 963 154 36 0
ODI 0 68 11 329 1568 733 156 0
CDI 0 15 3 289 1849 1465 337 65
VCDI 0 0 0 33 1410 7463 24303 49302
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80649 12269 118 456 235 170 2 0
OW 73 603 81 395 438 163 34 0
VODI 0 357 38 535 1068 360 140 0
ODI 0 200 29 362 1195 514 156 0
CDI 0 51 15 326 1193 991 379 23
VCDI 0 0 0 169 2031 7765 24121 49344


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