Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-11-29

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-12-03

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1 949 9 57 2 0 0 0
OW 0 60 6 41 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 4 64 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 21 4 68 60 0 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 72 123 8 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 317 1573 7919 25424
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1 859 3 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 72 4 25 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 8 56 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 30 3 52 18 0 0 0
CDI 0 35 3 52 69 7 0 0
VCDI 0 10 3 144 440 1574 7919 25424

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 46 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 96 543 2436
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 35 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 118 543 2436

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 64 15 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 419 2296 7184
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 25 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 481 2286 7180

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1753 22 108 57 18 0 0
OW 0 321 28 141 73 12 0 0
VODI 0 31 11 152 161 23 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 37 270 71 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 148 120 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 880 1184 8
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1350 13 82 38 0 0 0
OW 0 420 3 31 35 5 0 0
VODI 0 229 24 115 55 20 0 0
ODI 0 73 12 106 226 16 0 0
CDI 0 29 8 89 229 123 0 0
VCDI 0 5 3 15 148 960 1184 8

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 4 0 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 190 1062 5957
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 193 1062 5962

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 87 1253 3985
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 80 1252 3985

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 673 13 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 114 5 68 21 8 0 0
VODI 0 116 4 26 43 24 13 0
ODI 0 67 5 25 33 10 20 0
CDI 0 94 12 89 93 35 65 2
VCDI 0 12 10 126 494 754 3062 175
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 523 8 35 0 0 0 0
OW 0 146 6 29 20 12 1 0
VODI 0 151 2 32 18 12 9 0
ODI 0 107 5 24 31 9 24 0
CDI 0 66 9 38 67 42 76 5
VCDI 0 83 19 196 548 756 3050 172

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8104 2470 26 61 4 0 0 0
OW 0 67 4 64 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 2 43 46 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 14 45 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 30 30 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 29 83 139 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8104 2402 20 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 85 3 42 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 5 37 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 5 36 20 0 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 36 39 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 104 102 139 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6849 2409 2 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 84 10 65 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 11 87 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 4 61 41 0 0 0
CDI 0 1 3 39 86 47 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 310 1065 434 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6849 2312 4 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 139 4 46 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 60 4 71 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 22 10 52 36 1 0 0
CDI 0 6 7 61 59 32 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 43 343 1079 436 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10079 2023 22 163 162 144 0 0
OW 0 33 7 30 9 26 0 0
VODI 0 3 2 38 33 40 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 50 38 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 53 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10079 2047 26 178 178 183 0 0
OW 0 12 5 57 26 33 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 56 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 10 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 20 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 472 19 71 3 0 0 0
OW 0 26 3 59 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 6 44 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 65 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 110 103 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 76 617 2887 1076
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 437 13 27 1 0 0 0
OW 0 25 4 49 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 3 49 33 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 4 25 39 0 0 0
CDI 0 6 4 39 77 27 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 39 179 702 2894 1076

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 234 1200 25 295 72 0 0 0
OW 16 75 9 132 159 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 3 183 635 74 0 0
ODI 0 16 6 69 201 519 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 30 1097 251 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 1501 1733 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 238 1102 21 275 148 1 0 0
OW 12 142 12 116 305 24 0 0
VODI 0 36 2 133 369 256 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 94 210 409 14 0
CDI 0 39 8 60 33 676 181 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 50 1825 1791 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 16217 2403 42 97 0 0 0 0
OW 0 95 13 187 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 3 164 208 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 176 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 96 286 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 162 4 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 16217 2383 37 188 19 0 0 0
OW 0 92 13 114 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 8 113 76 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 140 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 170 177 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 278 4 0


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