Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-11-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82855 10654 99 462 257 85 0 0
OW 35 353 35 196 135 3 0 0
VODI 0 172 35 254 257 21 0 0
ODI 0 39 15 249 251 72 0 0
CDI 0 4 7 160 388 253 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 57 719 3530 4728 2720
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82122 10884 111 568 350 74 0 0
OW 35 325 25 201 170 20 0 0
VODI 0 185 36 224 225 103 0 0
ODI 0 69 13 190 230 134 0 0
CDI 0 13 11 124 369 439 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 547 2436 4534 4304
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82036 11162 127 599 355 35 0 0
OW 37 159 40 279 171 33 0 0
VODI 0 77 14 246 361 55 0 0
ODI 0 22 10 105 337 123 2 0
CDI 0 0 2 59 367 294 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 629 3170 4261 3895
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82301 10948 114 418 178 72 0 0
OW 50 228 43 349 88 18 0 0
VODI 0 84 29 306 248 29 0 0
ODI 0 26 7 168 300 37 0 0
CDI 0 1 3 103 398 263 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 796 2702 4378 4380
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82301 10944 118 435 181 76 0 0
OW 50 231 38 349 82 11 0 0
VODI 0 90 32 295 251 22 0 0
ODI 0 21 7 166 292 44 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 104 401 250 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 801 2718 4378 4380

Date: 2018-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82357 10839 93 337 161 152 8 0
OW 50 303 45 313 76 24 0 0
VODI 0 112 26 328 166 24 0 0
ODI 0 45 9 244 213 47 0 0
CDI 0 25 5 155 411 208 23 0
VCDI 0 0 3 93 923 2269 5327 3686
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82356 10821 100 359 162 159 8 0
OW 51 304 37 304 68 15 0 0
VODI 0 123 26 332 156 18 0 0
ODI 0 51 11 206 229 47 0 0
CDI 0 25 6 178 399 195 23 0
VCDI 0 0 1 91 936 2290 5327 3686

Date: 2018-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82982 10233 101 402 171 144 0 0
OW 50 291 36 330 88 26 0 0
VODI 0 112 27 336 256 40 0 0
ODI 0 29 8 173 372 52 0 0
CDI 0 4 4 130 446 485 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 50 627 2310 5088 3695
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82981 9936 85 289 180 183 0 0
OW 51 373 29 267 55 33 0 0
VODI 0 229 23 282 161 31 0 0
ODI 0 74 21 188 190 35 0 0
CDI 0 47 14 177 399 245 0 0
VCDI 0 10 4 218 975 2530 5090 3695

Date: 2018-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82120 10978 87 386 189 199 0 0
OW 53 313 55 262 71 20 0 0
VODI 0 157 28 295 218 27 0 0
ODI 0 56 9 181 309 53 0 0
CDI 0 40 8 146 322 270 12 0
VCDI 0 2 4 133 654 2565 6470 2408
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82121 10683 76 304 206 224 0 0
OW 52 350 27 210 44 28 0 0
VODI 0 275 33 242 178 26 0 0
ODI 0 89 25 176 205 41 0 0
CDI 0 56 11 152 278 153 5 0
VCDI 0 93 19 319 852 2662 6477 2408

Date: 2018-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82042 10622 96 375 213 203 3 0
OW 59 368 37 248 98 14 0 0
VODI 0 226 33 309 236 37 0 0
ODI 0 75 15 209 291 52 0 0
CDI 0 30 5 160 381 311 0 0
VCDI 0 6 4 156 366 2012 6998 2810
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82041 10257 89 339 258 213 3 0
OW 60 451 29 166 83 32 0 0
VODI 0 296 25 229 157 49 0 0
ODI 0 128 12 182 232 49 0 0
CDI 0 67 12 149 342 185 3 0
VCDI 0 128 23 392 513 2101 6995 2810


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