Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-11-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 198 4852 70 522 197 6 3 0
OW 15 561 37 472 620 196 47 0
VODI 0 119 21 396 461 473 244 0
ODI 0 15 9 241 364 360 165 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 237 397 160 8
VCDI 0 0 0 5 380 4005 11153 18827
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 325 4405 49 324 89 15 0 0
OW 8 685 48 569 522 107 4 0
VODI 0 145 24 437 487 643 66 0
ODI 0 52 12 165 359 372 120 0
CDI 0 63 8 79 227 411 158 1
VCDI 0 0 0 40 302 3528 7772 23245
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 367 4440 56 272 28 0 0 0
OW 0 543 67 568 206 20 0 0
VODI 0 148 21 429 825 308 0 0
ODI 0 54 7 61 509 584 25 0
CDI 0 4 2 19 332 696 217 8
VCDI 0 0 0 32 308 3275 11452 19983
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 290 3796 53 356 83 0 0 0
OW 0 401 34 572 461 0 0 0
VODI 0 101 23 418 832 349 0 0
ODI 0 57 14 174 487 625 12 0
CDI 0 5 4 76 466 633 107 5
VCDI 0 0 0 30 284 3368 11405 20345
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 290 3794 57 466 206 0 0 0
OW 0 367 26 391 254 0 0 0
VODI 0 123 22 452 793 223 0 0
ODI 0 71 14 200 559 484 7 0
CDI 0 5 9 82 478 795 92 8
VCDI 0 0 0 35 323 3473 11425 20342

Date: 2018-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 41 3610 44 310 109 3 0 0
OW 0 480 42 507 420 16 0 0
VODI 0 159 18 397 919 346 0 0
ODI 0 106 17 147 377 711 0 0
CDI 0 23 4 94 330 800 28 1
VCDI 0 0 0 24 218 3856 12152 19557
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 41 3512 47 394 271 1 0 0
OW 0 510 36 342 224 10 0 0
VODI 0 223 19 443 812 197 0 0
ODI 0 112 15 177 525 502 1 0
CDI 0 21 8 84 307 1002 46 1
VCDI 0 0 0 39 234 4020 12133 19557

Date: 2018-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 234 3160 58 442 129 18 0 0
OW 16 443 43 371 236 12 0 0
VODI 0 61 14 424 916 97 0 0
ODI 0 17 8 106 527 608 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 197 1368 273 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 3410 9189 23399
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 238 2667 44 505 204 1 0 0
OW 12 592 18 191 395 29 0 0
VODI 0 276 30 275 459 276 0 0
ODI 0 73 12 207 500 425 14 0
CDI 0 68 16 149 284 865 206 6
VCDI 0 5 3 20 245 3917 9244 23395

Date: 2018-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 164 2276 46 363 311 64 0 0
OW 10 444 38 313 161 122 0 0
VODI 0 157 31 316 361 209 3 0
ODI 0 1 2 97 629 357 99 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 318 566 397 1
VCDI 0 0 0 9 261 3456 13506 20712
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 161 1842 40 389 298 125 0 0
OW 13 538 23 212 229 112 0 0
VODI 0 444 45 246 275 242 78 0
ODI 0 42 8 194 361 279 158 0
CDI 0 12 1 52 488 314 358 2
VCDI 0 0 0 71 390 3702 13411 20711

Date: 2018-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1239 16 161 132 56 0 0
OW 0 549 32 315 407 385 9 0
VODI 0 115 37 370 196 275 31 0
ODI 0 9 6 111 382 227 73 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 422 709 207 3
VCDI 0 0 0 19 311 2194 11418 25450
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1178 24 309 302 207 8 0
OW 0 363 17 188 275 329 17 0
VODI 0 318 34 275 235 323 70 0
ODI 0 53 15 154 290 225 197 0
CDI 0 0 1 31 303 400 285 4
VCDI 0 0 0 19 445 2362 11161 25449


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