Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-11-15

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-11-19

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 22 1029 15 66 2 0 0 0
OW 0 78 4 44 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 4 74 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 47 70 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 31 90 151 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 186 2966 12041 19887
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 22 918 12 58 2 0 0 0
OW 0 78 5 44 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 5 62 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 64 0 32 52 4 0 0
CDI 0 2 3 38 78 75 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 218 3046 12041 19887

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 34 373 2719
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 34 371 2724

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 11 4 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 4 20 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 4 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 98 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 615 2708 6398
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 13 13 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 85 5 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 642 2703 6395

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 698 2221 41 192 104 0 0 0
OW 28 73 7 163 130 5 0 0
VODI 1 24 0 25 149 66 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 0 89 184 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 434 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 285 702 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 702 2248 37 185 133 1 0 0
OW 25 64 11 138 87 22 0 0
VODI 0 11 0 57 153 64 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 94 126 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 257 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 504 703 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 7 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 36 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 22 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 67 20 31
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 150 1887 4963
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 44 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 62 42 31
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 161 1865 4963

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 28 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 722 3389 1144
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 24 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 726 3368 1144

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 339 1330 24 90 12 0 0 0
OW 8 230 19 204 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 2 55 275 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 223 60 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 135 306 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 1228 1624 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 323 1184 19 81 9 0 0 0
OW 24 213 13 59 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 160 11 130 103 2 0 0
ODI 0 28 1 65 279 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 17 187 232 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 155 1350 1629 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8938 2029 24 43 6 0 0 0
OW 0 29 5 61 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 6 63 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 28 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8938 2011 27 83 15 0 0 0
OW 0 32 2 15 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 1 11 51 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 20 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 31 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6801 2508 14 49 2 0 0 0
OW 0 52 14 110 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 91 92 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 135 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 107 166 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 1062 383 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6801 2460 10 46 8 0 0 0
OW 0 87 13 74 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 7 103 83 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 94 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 118 138 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 82 1073 381 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10449 2239 18 64 88 56 0 0
OW 0 0 0 19 29 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 13 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10449 2239 18 74 114 59 0 0
OW 0 0 0 9 9 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 681 15 48 4 0 0 0
OW 0 22 8 106 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 41 75 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 76 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 139 40 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 106 1827 2292 260
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 522 6 18 3 0 0 0
OW 0 72 1 12 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 96 12 53 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 5 100 48 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 208 25 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 168 1842 2292 260

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 462 3228 48 437 455 31 0 0
OW 1 267 25 325 441 159 0 0
VODI 0 67 12 94 374 301 0 0
ODI 0 7 0 6 162 199 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 38 489 69 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 495 395 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 462 3376 60 575 634 144 0 0
OW 1 133 20 195 407 119 0 0
VODI 0 48 4 66 261 130 0 0
ODI 0 11 1 17 70 117 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 6 54 246 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 44 918 464 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 16016 3252 21 50 0 0 0 0
OW 0 111 12 101 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 5 72 54 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 126 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 189 109 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 21 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 16016 3237 10 45 4 0 0 0
OW 0 102 13 46 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 13 64 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 51 30 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 99 8 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 243 132 0 0


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