Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2018-11-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 563 2299 39 137 34 0 0 0
OW 1 292 35 205 170 26 0 0
VODI 0 58 11 233 285 136 81 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 252 646 365 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 195 1115 762 46
VCDI 0 0 0 2 103 3300 12844 7840
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 447 2325 31 141 5 0 0 0
OW 1 266 26 271 108 5 0 0
VODI 0 24 13 299 287 68 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 278 189 38 2
CDI 0 1 0 7 169 879 556 359
VCDI 0 1 2 9 217 2998 9512 12514
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 568 2199 34 156 28 0 0 0
OW 0 198 20 249 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 2 198 360 15 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 18 221 193 17 0
CDI 0 1 1 8 107 509 307 31
VCDI 0 0 0 11 125 2491 11854 12083
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 253 1909 29 120 22 0 0 0
OW 5 377 17 117 121 8 0 0
VODI 0 35 5 151 394 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 285 131 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 243 489 39 40
VCDI 0 0 0 4 213 4238 8094 14630
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 239 1993 30 128 32 0 0 0
OW 19 257 14 87 110 4 0 0
VODI 0 71 7 173 311 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 382 126 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 246 494 49 41
VCDI 0 0 0 4 197 4243 8084 14629

Date: 2018-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 246 1655 39 142 40 0 0 0
OW 6 219 16 163 177 1 0 0
VODI 0 61 3 62 302 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 356 195 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 208 529 27 17
VCDI 0 0 0 14 271 4178 9679 13368
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 242 1690 42 157 49 0 0 0
OW 10 169 13 107 110 2 0 0
VODI 0 74 2 97 280 37 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 40 401 152 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 248 571 32 25
VCDI 0 0 0 12 266 4187 9674 13360

Date: 2018-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 355 1743 27 105 18 0 0 0
OW 8 232 21 236 129 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 3 59 335 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 256 112 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 147 479 75 31
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 3211 10614 13798
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 339 1600 25 126 23 0 0 0
OW 24 213 13 65 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 160 11 130 151 6 0 0
ODI 0 28 1 65 297 38 2 0
CDI 0 0 1 17 210 355 87 31
VCDI 0 0 0 0 192 3423 10600 13798

Date: 2018-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 1470 29 88 15 0 0 0
OW 0 96 20 220 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 5 96 370 31 0 0
ODI 0 31 2 24 175 191 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 118 427 7 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 288 4754 10079 13386
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 1399 26 85 24 0 0 0
OW 0 142 18 165 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 10 136 244 40 0 0
ODI 0 41 1 19 186 84 0 0
CDI 0 15 1 23 144 427 22 36
VCDI 0 0 0 4 358 4852 10064 13358

Date: 2018-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1223 22 90 41 0 0 0
OW 0 132 12 80 98 2 0 0
VODI 0 44 14 81 143 155 0 0
ODI 0 50 5 46 67 247 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 65 325 137 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 94 2766 10760 15342
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1055 19 80 15 0 0 0
OW 0 201 6 38 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 110 14 83 145 30 0 0
ODI 0 46 12 66 111 180 2 0
CDI 0 37 2 27 46 328 149 38
VCDI 0 0 0 17 147 2957 10771 15306


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