Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-11-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95243 16378 162 741 143 5 0 0
OW 56 841 86 821 622 43 0 0
VODI 6 311 53 649 920 377 81 0
ODI 0 42 10 153 757 1175 403 0
CDI 0 17 9 127 628 2087 1061 47
VCDI 0 1 1 27 537 10935 31791 19702
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93075 16885 150 774 172 4 0 0
OW 41 1003 71 815 627 31 0 0
VODI 0 343 52 678 1080 300 3 0
ODI 0 66 15 237 770 653 82 2
CDI 0 42 6 126 554 1677 802 359
VCDI 0 5 5 26 581 9835 26262 28839
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92718 16887 178 841 262 13 0 0
OW 46 565 56 678 478 57 0 0
VODI 0 195 33 568 1132 330 0 0
ODI 0 64 11 237 820 657 34 0
CDI 0 35 9 77 458 1475 559 35
VCDI 0 6 4 43 330 7778 30435 28944
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88935 18666 193 1024 197 35 0 0
OW 95 897 56 541 482 34 0 0
VODI 1 221 38 518 1064 226 22 0
ODI 0 66 14 279 1052 439 25 0
CDI 0 27 4 138 908 1037 141 40
VCDI 0 0 2 45 622 9156 26080 33728
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88951 18794 196 966 241 36 0 0
OW 79 737 53 522 398 39 1 0
VODI 1 249 41 604 970 235 26 0
ODI 0 70 11 282 1178 398 23 0
CDI 0 27 4 133 965 1097 134 41
VCDI 0 0 2 38 573 9122 26084 33727

Date: 2018-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88203 17040 225 1487 553 97 3 0
OW 130 781 76 622 614 62 0 0
VODI 15 251 25 446 922 217 0 0
ODI 0 27 5 210 978 557 2 0
CDI 0 8 3 168 939 1261 64 24
VCDI 0 1 1 95 847 9737 25772 34580
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88234 17093 228 1435 589 106 3 0
OW 111 748 74 602 496 58 0 0
VODI 3 234 23 502 899 226 0 0
ODI 0 24 6 239 1042 497 6 0
CDI 0 7 3 167 1055 1270 75 28
VCDI 0 2 1 83 772 9774 25757 34576

Date: 2018-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85556 18517 220 1043 684 91 0 0
OW 66 862 94 1140 849 187 0 0
VODI 1 159 27 460 1173 419 0 0
ODI 0 16 1 79 941 586 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 32 728 1889 170 38
VCDI 0 0 0 16 433 9405 25794 35371
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85544 18195 199 1165 935 217 0 0
OW 79 781 78 596 607 154 0 0
VODI 0 459 53 555 752 220 0 0
ODI 0 116 9 302 732 372 2 0
CDI 0 3 4 104 807 1183 145 36
VCDI 0 0 0 48 975 10431 25817 35373

Date: 2018-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84796 16383 225 1257 459 85 0 0
OW 55 652 104 1044 915 358 0 0
VODI 0 355 54 715 1182 514 2 0
ODI 0 98 14 263 738 710 15 0
CDI 0 46 1 142 782 1344 29 8
VCDI 0 3 0 73 1809 13063 22689 36066
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84795 16109 233 1482 936 354 0 0
OW 56 670 82 703 581 487 1 0
VODI 0 389 53 690 917 658 25 0
ODI 0 214 16 234 667 418 2 0
CDI 0 101 13 226 583 981 42 36
VCDI 0 54 1 159 2201 13176 22665 36038

Date: 2018-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83053 16729 191 1074 495 91 3 0
OW 50 1046 84 748 853 201 47 0
VODI 0 335 70 731 861 649 244 0
ODI 0 104 29 536 682 679 190 0
CDI 0 4 7 204 690 975 297 10
VCDI 0 0 0 62 1193 10301 26641 36889
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83050 16471 188 1346 1040 200 7 0
OW 52 881 57 550 531 431 146 0
VODI 1 538 65 579 691 614 275 0
ODI 0 231 46 408 561 536 188 0
CDI 0 92 21 286 538 784 303 38
VCDI 0 5 4 186 1413 10331 26503 36861


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