Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-11-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90084 7809 54 221 47 0 0 0
OW 6 301 25 237 150 2 0 0
VODI 0 72 20 158 181 20 1 0
ODI 0 5 3 73 208 46 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 225 243 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 229 2745 4023 1846
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88491 8728 72 501 141 0 0 0
OW 11 220 18 192 335 76 0 0
VODI 0 96 23 145 214 100 2 0
ODI 0 13 12 122 132 97 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 201 160 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 305 2637 3939 2020
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88487 8606 79 438 227 5 0 0
OW 14 189 24 163 223 19 0 0
VODI 0 53 13 163 369 254 0 0
ODI 0 10 2 84 161 250 1 0
CDI 0 4 2 47 164 371 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 265 2211 3164 3006
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87320 9494 75 340 180 4 0 0
OW 19 227 19 180 249 29 0 0
VODI 0 92 29 162 234 195 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 129 212 222 46 0
CDI 0 5 3 37 275 292 155 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 184 2062 3793 2812
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87319 9503 79 393 228 4 0 0
OW 20 222 17 123 182 41 0 0
VODI 0 85 26 168 246 207 0 0
ODI 0 11 2 123 225 208 51 0
CDI 0 5 3 34 255 271 116 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 198 2073 3827 2812

Date: 2018-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87593 8736 61 267 93 11 0 0
OW 21 418 22 233 247 1 0 0
VODI 0 153 30 163 306 115 0 0
ODI 0 30 9 135 153 210 24 0
CDI 0 17 3 87 183 340 157 0
VCDI 0 1 1 23 335 3325 3698 1899
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87592 8711 68 344 125 12 0 0
OW 22 437 17 178 167 1 0 0
VODI 0 159 26 144 338 113 0 0
ODI 0 29 10 118 175 174 27 0
CDI 0 19 4 93 161 362 110 0
VCDI 0 0 1 31 351 3340 3742 1899

Date: 2018-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86479 9618 82 325 64 6 0 0
OW 20 236 25 257 169 0 0 0
VODI 0 70 19 302 383 67 0 0
ODI 0 20 7 85 251 196 16 0
CDI 0 7 2 36 233 288 292 0
VCDI 0 0 1 5 176 2982 4558 1823
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86476 9253 69 295 68 6 0 0
OW 23 398 29 272 161 0 0 0
VODI 0 217 24 194 308 44 0 0
ODI 0 40 6 135 201 208 65 0
CDI 0 27 5 80 216 134 134 0
VCDI 0 16 3 34 322 3147 4667 1823

Date: 2018-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85499 10073 88 258 90 18 0 0
OW 27 296 28 252 71 1 0 0
VODI 1 70 24 297 388 10 0 0
ODI 0 22 2 124 324 92 0 0
CDI 0 16 4 32 334 215 37 0
VCDI 0 2 2 23 208 2387 5247 2538
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85499 9722 78 241 90 18 0 0
OW 27 401 20 200 69 1 0 0
VODI 1 272 39 314 403 12 0 0
ODI 0 33 5 147 270 148 35 0
CDI 0 27 1 46 329 199 113 0
VCDI 0 24 5 38 254 2345 5136 2538

Date: 2018-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85870 9023 78 300 110 37 0 0
OW 30 399 35 233 77 3 0 0
VODI 1 132 18 256 235 14 0 0
ODI 0 31 3 153 367 59 0 0
CDI 0 26 0 63 349 142 0 0
VCDI 0 22 2 19 396 2437 5616 2564
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85870 8933 75 276 127 39 0 0
OW 30 316 25 225 54 3 0 0
VODI 1 281 31 268 265 22 0 0
ODI 0 45 2 153 425 54 0 0
CDI 0 31 1 55 319 199 6 0
VCDI 0 27 2 47 344 2375 5610 2564


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