Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-11-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8645 4679 64 299 213 12 0 0
OW 5 342 40 320 380 188 0 0
VODI 0 19 17 284 447 508 39 0
ODI 0 16 2 65 402 656 245 0
CDI 0 11 3 22 311 1163 403 41
VCDI 0 0 0 6 220 4416 13359 8024
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7841 4887 71 283 215 14 0 0
OW 9 351 32 203 215 109 0 0
VODI 0 41 10 220 436 706 5 0
ODI 0 1 2 20 327 727 77 0
CDI 0 11 2 16 201 912 677 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 201 2866 14036 10140
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8127 4916 54 191 32 0 0 0
OW 45 319 24 201 87 2 0 0
VODI 4 158 22 193 269 90 0 0
ODI 0 19 7 112 356 571 44 0
CDI 0 26 2 12 361 894 447 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 133 3481 14183 10484
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6369 6056 55 297 33 0 0 0
OW 29 418 30 313 147 0 0 0
VODI 2 87 13 295 351 80 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 34 342 304 4 0
CDI 0 16 2 27 304 768 308 0
VCDI 0 4 2 6 210 4776 13683 10492
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6371 6071 59 363 42 0 0 0
OW 28 344 21 217 135 1 0 0
VODI 1 143 16 295 289 74 0 0
ODI 0 16 2 57 346 301 5 0
CDI 0 15 3 26 333 748 242 0
VCDI 0 0 2 14 242 4804 13748 10492

Date: 2018-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6486 5116 60 395 42 0 0 0
OW 33 181 18 309 307 3 0 0
VODI 0 196 20 173 455 88 0 0
ODI 0 24 5 77 299 322 5 0
CDI 0 17 7 31 165 614 62 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 82 4051 13205 13017
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6483 5141 65 410 58 0 0 0
OW 35 166 10 276 238 8 0 0
VODI 1 180 21 172 476 65 0 0
ODI 0 28 7 90 290 329 1 0
CDI 0 19 7 26 159 682 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 129 3994 13222 13017

Date: 2018-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6227 4901 67 404 143 0 0 0
OW 20 166 10 208 255 47 0 0
VODI 0 94 17 154 516 199 0 0
ODI 0 9 1 70 439 368 19 0
CDI 0 17 3 20 99 690 93 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 3255 13637 13669
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6221 4768 62 383 155 0 0 0
OW 26 196 8 186 288 25 0 0
VODI 0 133 10 95 466 156 0 0
ODI 0 69 12 128 222 301 7 0
CDI 0 20 6 41 222 422 114 4
VCDI 0 1 0 23 146 3655 13628 13667

Date: 2018-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4536 6235 89 378 81 0 0 0
OW 43 132 8 290 203 29 0 0
VODI 0 62 16 173 421 146 0 0
ODI 0 46 5 89 422 260 8 0
CDI 0 2 1 51 253 422 62 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 78 2698 13114 15511
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4474 6071 79 380 81 0 0 0
OW 101 259 19 221 287 12 0 0
VODI 4 69 7 161 406 163 0 0
ODI 0 70 8 96 314 265 7 0
CDI 0 8 6 70 175 372 71 1
VCDI 0 0 0 55 195 2743 13106 15510

Date: 2018-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2963 6542 106 786 260 16 0 0
OW 77 132 10 149 364 54 0 0
VODI 7 23 3 84 409 187 10 0
ODI 0 0 1 67 288 307 25 0
CDI 0 3 2 80 287 534 91 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 94 2232 11987 17662
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2928 6272 102 739 418 18 0 0
OW 101 336 14 179 314 93 0 0
VODI 18 84 3 115 367 339 11 0
ODI 0 5 1 35 238 345 37 0
CDI 0 1 0 39 166 294 162 11
VCDI 0 2 2 83 199 2241 11903 17651


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