Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-11-01

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-11-05

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 69 1443 26 139 79 7 0 0
OW 0 29 12 96 182 16 0 0
VODI 0 18 1 96 335 113 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 40 265 392 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 76 577 420 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 84 3001 17172 12161
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 69 1255 17 93 66 13 0 0
OW 0 130 9 72 190 15 0 0
VODI 0 83 7 97 271 224 15 0
ODI 0 21 6 77 181 285 130 0
CDI 0 3 3 32 152 332 425 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 161 3237 17042 12161

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 11 117 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 116 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 74 1464 1272
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 12 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 86 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 56 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 77 1501 1272

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 5 1 35 35 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 39 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 12 189 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 307 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 574 3306 5298
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 5 1 36 37 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 30 84 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 150 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 222 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 657 3321 5298

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1965 2703 34 119 2 0 0 0
OW 8 74 16 168 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 56 125 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 89 50 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 150 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1965 2636 26 132 69 1 0 0
OW 8 128 21 131 59 22 0 0
VODI 0 20 6 56 84 93 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 20 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 27 27 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 23 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 207 18 113 55 17 0 0
OW 0 1 2 75 211 159 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 10 298 437 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 56 578 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 412 129 21
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 103 2960 1342
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 208 20 175 391 138 0 0
OW 0 0 0 22 110 237 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 72 337 13 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 37 370 24 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 391 135 35
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 233 2959 1328

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 27 105 19 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 43 600 278 15
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 705 1453 113
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 46 1119 803
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 21 33 6 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 45 296 144 3
ODI 0 0 0 0 4 319 447 100
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 495 791 126
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 312 1481 702

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1066 2327 38 94 2 0 0 0
OW 0 75 18 309 132 10 0 0
VODI 0 19 13 353 394 182 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 354 542 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 242 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 20 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1056 2260 35 192 37 12 0 0
OW 10 85 13 275 222 42 0 0
VODI 0 63 11 194 223 165 8 0
ODI 0 13 10 103 310 441 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 103 253 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 79 61 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10274 1044 7 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10274 1043 7 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7234 2409 6 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 133 9 62 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 12 125 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 79 14 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 152 104 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 127 940 147 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7234 2417 4 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 103 3 30 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 14 66 19 8 7 0
ODI 0 4 6 82 32 41 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 123 51 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 205 958 147 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11509 1321 12 82 50 4 0 0
OW 0 1 1 6 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11509 1320 13 83 51 4 0 0
OW 0 2 0 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 100 1450 32 263 39 0 0 0
OW 0 12 6 94 188 24 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 38 282 328 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 64 407 124 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 84 488 239 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 1034 451 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 100 1394 33 323 158 2 0 0
OW 0 68 4 44 156 62 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 28 160 393 59 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 81 276 96 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 40 320 203 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 118 1228 456 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5371 2036 7 9 0 0 0 0
OW 12 135 11 34 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 5 85 94 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 172 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 52 172 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 151 68 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5383 2077 11 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 145 4 47 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 7 44 111 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 14 105 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 47 62 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 76 304 73 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18438 1701 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 2 17 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 1 4 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 16 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 13 1 1 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18438 1682 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 2 27 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 1 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 17 3 18 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0


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