Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-11-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105426 18580 201 1121 1006 234 5 0
OW 17 2025 160 1408 1056 375 204 0
VODI 3 360 57 948 2006 1144 610 0
ODI 0 58 13 302 1002 1628 964 0
CDI 0 9 3 100 729 1760 1511 2
VCDI 0 0 1 45 416 12347 25620 3592
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104456 16959 164 964 898 297 10 0
OW 16 2676 168 1270 822 443 178 0
VODI 1 564 80 1044 1740 773 596 0
ODI 0 65 10 248 1232 1559 932 0
CDI 0 5 0 78 819 1830 1656 1
VCDI 0 0 0 55 332 8903 29573 5631
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102444 17869 204 1086 781 104 0 0
OW 2 1800 160 1510 1185 323 0 0
VODI 0 354 60 1189 2049 999 47 0
ODI 0 24 6 96 982 1965 512 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 461 2401 2020 43
VCDI 0 0 0 1 171 7375 28323 10466
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100354 17515 186 998 418 77 0 0
OW 9 1607 131 1029 853 479 2 0
VODI 0 445 101 1234 2269 1346 69 0
ODI 0 29 7 200 1510 1727 427 0
CDI 0 5 0 59 654 2656 1224 40
VCDI 0 0 0 11 245 9532 29767 9833
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100354 18074 214 1192 529 167 0 0
OW 9 1090 124 980 864 418 4 0
VODI 0 401 81 1096 2260 1310 84 0
ODI 0 31 6 206 1401 1653 377 0
CDI 0 5 0 46 690 2641 887 17
VCDI 0 0 0 11 205 9628 30137 9856

Date: 2018-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98237 16828 199 1234 460 40 0 0
OW 15 1276 111 973 1108 260 18 0
VODI 0 292 51 709 2060 1567 174 0
ODI 0 25 14 205 1239 2369 512 5
CDI 0 12 4 54 642 2763 1294 145
VCDI 0 0 0 19 517 7695 28158 15764
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98233 17315 238 1540 637 103 1 0
OW 19 788 81 803 1157 337 34 0
VODI 0 287 45 537 1899 1404 178 0
ODI 0 27 7 245 1203 2355 543 27
CDI 0 16 8 59 669 2626 1131 95
VCDI 0 0 0 10 461 7869 28269 15792

Date: 2018-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97877 16646 181 876 262 28 0 0
OW 31 477 75 846 803 221 0 0
VODI 0 171 35 768 1624 1325 32 0
ODI 0 7 5 112 1134 2937 524 15
CDI 0 13 1 43 403 3172 2434 134
VCDI 0 0 0 11 285 5957 26707 20876
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97879 16297 167 1078 809 173 0 0
OW 29 689 54 628 819 424 6 0
VODI 0 269 47 486 1015 1686 246 3
ODI 0 38 23 303 779 2040 741 100
CDI 0 20 6 116 504 2209 1663 161
VCDI 0 1 0 45 585 7108 27041 20761

Date: 2018-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95609 17843 183 837 285 5 0 0
OW 72 799 73 653 429 56 95 0
VODI 16 179 43 523 1009 610 241 0
ODI 0 20 5 265 1025 1595 285 0
CDI 0 31 4 58 980 3324 1214 65
VCDI 0 3 1 35 567 7568 27605 22838
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95613 17286 177 951 607 100 111 0
OW 82 1019 48 468 668 530 144 0
VODI 2 395 51 374 872 1193 246 0
ODI 0 94 20 287 584 1847 570 8
CDI 0 52 10 183 710 1860 1781 211
VCDI 0 29 3 108 854 7628 26588 22684

Date: 2018-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95243 16378 162 741 143 5 0 0
OW 56 841 86 821 622 43 0 0
VODI 6 311 53 649 920 377 81 0
ODI 0 42 10 153 757 1175 403 0
CDI 0 17 9 127 628 2087 1061 47
VCDI 0 1 1 27 537 10935 31791 19702
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95223 15623 182 1112 630 75 23 0
OW 72 1239 57 601 648 364 116 0
VODI 10 460 38 321 687 1219 570 0
ODI 0 140 21 172 450 1418 551 0
CDI 0 80 12 139 484 1923 1631 68
VCDI 0 48 11 173 708 9623 30445 19681


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