Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-10-25

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-10-29

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 98 2529 54 196 38 0 0 0
OW 0 172 24 258 201 5 0 0
VODI 0 38 5 110 554 167 40 0
ODI 0 5 2 29 130 734 386 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 49 626 563 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 4837 20110 4852
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 98 2249 39 160 41 4 1 0
OW 0 350 25 180 137 28 30 0
VODI 0 97 15 195 467 268 175 0
ODI 0 27 2 20 189 467 247 0
CDI 0 17 1 16 76 419 371 0
VCDI 0 4 3 47 127 5183 20275 4852

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 14 0 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 41 5 87 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 68 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 48 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 18 63 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 441 2073 197
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 20 1 30 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 2 24 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 2 75 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 55 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 54 24 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 492 2075 197

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 9 3 70 109 4 0 0
OW 0 13 0 69 51 30 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 66 157 138 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 143 205 96 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 127 359 722 42
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 768 3749 2997
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 7 3 42 141 24 0 0
OW 0 6 0 47 64 59 10 0
VODI 0 9 0 71 62 182 90 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 125 178 513 66
CDI 0 0 0 19 90 329 610 63
VCDI 0 0 0 32 115 732 3350 2910

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2660 2113 40 129 158 50 0 0
OW 1 3 8 109 51 89 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 11 43 70 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 38 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 25 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2660 2076 29 125 181 146 0 0
OW 1 39 17 56 25 58 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 59 22 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 28 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 35 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 14 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5 1567 36 185 82 9 0 0
OW 0 91 14 150 67 36 0 0
VODI 0 7 0 28 232 188 12 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 53 582 182 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 438 958 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 40 2129 155
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5 1570 38 269 218 86 19 0
OW 0 83 12 60 61 91 22 0
VODI 0 12 0 34 134 201 139 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 21 556 322 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 301 804 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 58 1975 155

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 875 3 90 66 0 0 0
OW 0 1089 48 388 309 18 0 0
VODI 0 199 38 503 472 87 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 17 110 348 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 385 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 203 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1103 19 282 220 0 0 0
OW 0 596 21 157 149 0 0 0
VODI 0 461 49 512 398 109 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 37 144 194 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 42 261 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 10 284 260 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2305 2569 20 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 529 36 196 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 172 9 169 221 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 36 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2305 2840 35 151 64 0 0 0
OW 0 368 28 177 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 2 81 136 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 46 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10605 712 11 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10604 712 11 3 0 0 0 0
OW 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6970 2510 11 40 0 0 0 0
OW 0 68 11 112 28 5 0 0
VODI 0 11 2 80 138 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 118 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 102 97 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 791 476 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6970 2520 11 90 16 36 0 0
OW 0 52 7 65 63 27 0 0
VODI 0 17 5 60 95 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 21 86 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 87 85 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 54 782 477 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12373 609 2 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12373 609 2 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1188 1717 25 321 190 9 0 0
OW 0 5 3 156 281 61 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 19 261 113 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 238 250 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 340 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 486 75 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1188 1661 21 219 310 8 0 0
OW 0 61 7 220 170 26 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 54 259 85 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 184 199 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 58 300 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 641 76 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5533 2505 14 23 0 0 0 0
OW 3 22 5 83 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 33 66 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 170 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 80 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5528 2213 8 15 0 0 0 0
OW 7 144 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 1 144 7 46 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 25 4 62 59 1 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 18 141 24 0 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 58 79 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20026 142 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 2 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 1 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20026 140 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 1 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 2 2 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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