Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-10-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93364 5966 31 148 74 0 0 0
OW 0 158 22 147 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 12 135 127 4 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 79 133 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 221 277 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 1314 4982 1671
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93499 5734 29 111 98 19 0 0
OW 0 232 25 186 36 25 0 0
VODI 0 89 15 143 92 11 0 0
ODI 0 16 6 100 139 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 276 82 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 180 3016 3360 1510
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92857 6624 38 166 106 9 0 0
OW 0 122 13 171 122 10 0 0
VODI 0 55 11 125 135 26 0 0
ODI 0 11 11 71 117 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 68 167 94 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 399 3561 2669 1300
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92708 6466 37 184 17 49 0 0
OW 0 138 16 172 124 13 0 0
VODI 0 45 10 155 248 34 0 0
ODI 0 9 5 67 148 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 46 163 115 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 240 2755 3485 1611
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92707 6507 40 183 45 55 0 0
OW 1 105 16 198 199 8 0 0
VODI 0 41 8 137 164 32 0 0
ODI 0 5 4 63 142 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 44 145 128 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 245 2743 3485 1611

Date: 2018-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91858 6949 45 158 21 23 0 0
OW 1 132 21 180 87 63 0 0
VODI 0 39 11 142 236 32 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 71 221 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 198 98 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 118 3036 3694 1549
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91859 6971 50 192 32 53 0 0
OW 0 118 18 160 90 38 0 0
VODI 0 31 8 129 292 48 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 65 162 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 168 104 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 137 3035 3694 1549

Date: 2018-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91771 6937 51 181 25 0 0 0
OW 0 124 18 216 94 5 0 0
VODI 0 48 6 110 313 44 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 39 339 142 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 143 201 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 80 2836 3789 1511
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91770 6828 45 179 45 36 0 0
OW 1 176 15 173 91 27 0 0
VODI 0 62 10 110 284 38 0 0
ODI 0 27 3 40 247 75 0 0
CDI 0 17 1 22 155 124 0 0
VCDI 0 4 3 47 172 2928 3834 1511

Date: 2018-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90991 7415 58 245 68 0 0 0
OW 6 164 27 166 98 1 0 0
VODI 0 41 7 157 186 28 0 0
ODI 0 10 3 60 229 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 237 250 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 183 2716 3982 1659
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90994 7155 50 242 101 3 0 0
OW 3 328 24 101 99 40 0 0
VODI 0 94 14 160 167 44 0 0
ODI 0 22 3 78 250 63 0 0
CDI 0 24 1 40 127 186 0 0
VCDI 0 7 3 56 257 2722 3983 1659

Date: 2018-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90084 7809 54 221 47 0 0 0
OW 6 301 25 237 150 2 0 0
VODI 0 72 20 158 181 20 1 0
ODI 0 5 3 73 208 46 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 225 243 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 229 2745 4023 1846
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90060 7671 62 323 127 1 0 0
OW 30 365 22 145 131 21 6 0
VODI 0 114 9 142 236 55 0 0
ODI 0 35 8 63 218 113 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 57 120 258 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 208 2608 4023 1846


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