Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-10-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114582 18979 153 1076 1364 176 0 0
OW 58 2001 162 1044 650 167 42 0
VODI 0 329 78 1192 1328 294 34 0
ODI 0 7 5 380 1462 732 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 971 3509 263 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 130 9405 22135 4263
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112930 18445 152 946 1123 278 0 0
OW 44 2158 159 1120 887 362 5 0
VODI 17 596 83 1202 1595 591 101 0
ODI 0 17 6 252 1428 872 57 0
CDI 0 0 0 67 878 2502 475 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 262 9717 22859 4850
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108252 21947 256 1158 688 78 5 0
OW 5 1131 138 1295 918 227 128 0
VODI 0 178 29 927 1983 1174 289 0
ODI 0 24 13 167 1150 2038 437 0
CDI 0 0 1 101 410 1664 2762 5
VCDI 0 0 0 33 590 7937 22679 6231
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106525 19514 243 1320 860 148 1 0
OW 12 1696 132 1453 1062 390 30 0
VODI 1 308 49 1064 1723 1421 313 0
ODI 0 55 10 340 1002 1816 576 0
CDI 0 9 3 91 598 1859 1771 0
VCDI 0 3 1 54 430 9374 26943 3848
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106528 19994 293 1579 966 226 14 0
OW 10 1280 93 1490 1178 395 54 0
VODI 0 250 37 833 1571 1478 234 0
ODI 0 46 11 277 990 1706 681 0
CDI 0 15 3 92 568 1862 1556 0
VCDI 0 0 1 51 402 9341 27095 3848

Date: 2018-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104369 18009 188 985 1009 314 7 0
OW 15 2072 158 1439 1038 594 150 0
VODI 2 436 74 930 1915 1095 611 0
ODI 0 63 12 286 1078 1723 963 0
CDI 0 11 1 104 830 1658 1633 1
VCDI 0 0 1 50 392 11780 27106 3946
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104373 18376 221 1274 1158 394 24 0
OW 12 1792 134 1221 970 507 137 0
VODI 1 352 66 883 1981 1188 725 0
ODI 0 58 8 243 1091 1573 1100 0
CDI 0 12 4 121 654 1757 1500 3
VCDI 0 1 1 52 408 11745 26984 3944

Date: 2018-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103623 17871 219 1133 643 72 0 0
OW 4 2038 154 1608 1028 244 0 0
VODI 0 446 56 1046 2212 798 58 0
ODI 0 19 3 91 1084 2269 665 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 352 2413 2310 42
VCDI 0 0 0 0 124 7373 28815 8201
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103617 17720 217 1390 1191 304 20 0
OW 9 1727 119 987 708 289 62 0
VODI 1 820 83 1188 1591 916 404 0
ODI 0 77 9 199 937 1633 1083 66
CDI 0 25 1 68 583 1762 1791 63
VCDI 0 5 3 80 433 8265 28488 8114

Date: 2018-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101189 17805 192 901 502 176 0 0
OW 9 1711 162 1117 1063 423 0 0
VODI 0 394 74 1434 2276 1111 33 0
ODI 0 33 5 138 1342 1823 394 0
CDI 0 2 0 44 628 2542 1580 16
VCDI 0 0 0 8 198 7978 31317 8428
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101184 17707 211 1116 1118 714 9 0
OW 13 1510 105 837 1227 511 41 0
VODI 1 602 100 1257 1729 1313 214 0
ODI 0 80 12 303 878 1578 900 0
CDI 0 39 2 72 568 1869 1659 77
VCDI 0 7 3 57 489 8068 30501 8367

Date: 2018-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100749 15760 190 959 383 46 2 0
OW 11 1461 132 1130 1010 318 37 0
VODI 0 327 87 1076 1900 1479 65 0
ODI 0 28 6 243 1287 2446 408 23
CDI 0 11 3 68 697 2778 1062 82
VCDI 0 0 0 21 458 9352 28143 12810
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100708 15501 223 1333 1051 544 46 0
OW 52 1485 92 815 922 955 36 0
VODI 0 522 79 947 1595 1952 143 1
ODI 0 62 20 261 1061 2017 697 34
CDI 0 17 2 103 573 2163 1562 71
VCDI 0 0 2 38 533 8788 27233 12809


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