Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2018-10-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12311 7386 42 182 19 0 0 0
OW 0 941 79 528 389 0 0 0
VODI 0 114 30 644 1175 173 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 1243 549 152 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 181 896 335 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 3409 1273 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11127 7427 71 283 84 0 0 0
OW 0 678 77 614 625 50 0 0
VODI 0 54 11 320 1453 708 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 494 1482 129 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 50 931 304 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2280 2810 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11352 7201 23 93 1 0 0 0
OW 60 705 54 313 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 243 62 566 343 2 0 0
ODI 0 7 5 301 1083 103 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 686 2644 101 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2934 3127 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10706 6947 28 118 0 0 0 0
OW 182 973 69 426 153 1 0 0
VODI 5 171 49 570 521 32 0 0
ODI 0 15 7 200 835 201 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 613 2369 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 4090 2747 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10833 7197 45 243 56 0 0 0
OW 60 657 51 339 135 0 0 0
VODI 0 209 47 510 536 39 0 0
ODI 0 40 7 187 639 269 0 0
CDI 0 3 3 52 696 1935 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 64 4450 2706 0

Date: 2018-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10100 6254 33 139 20 0 0 0
OW 41 1467 100 564 199 0 0 0
VODI 9 234 30 584 736 125 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 95 651 422 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 321 2222 143 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2904 4634 48
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10120 6933 62 283 97 0 0 0
OW 16 819 64 459 205 0 0 0
VODI 12 178 32 486 674 115 0 0
ODI 2 28 6 114 512 466 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 406 1811 227 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 3281 4544 48

Date: 2018-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6699 9037 85 325 22 0 0 0
OW 25 743 83 642 188 1 0 0
VODI 0 43 10 622 1190 207 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 10 630 1022 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 11 1686 1342 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1469 5686 255
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6720 8838 88 440 85 0 0 0
OW 4 696 53 542 362 44 0 0
VODI 0 271 33 477 844 419 0 0
ODI 0 19 5 112 457 575 103 0
CDI 0 0 1 28 273 1107 607 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 2240 6364 255

Date: 2018-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4768 8450 127 635 193 4 0 0
OW 0 1005 94 1020 392 75 0 0
VODI 0 71 6 408 1006 475 42 0
ODI 0 3 0 27 363 1064 284 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 50 816 1308 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1214 7174 1008
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4768 8631 126 938 286 7 0 0
OW 0 611 60 547 347 86 0 0
VODI 0 257 34 491 793 642 195 0
ODI 0 30 7 88 361 763 293 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 215 755 735 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 1395 7585 1008

Date: 2018-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3732 6544 88 475 469 15 0 0
OW 0 1492 122 1001 690 50 23 0
VODI 0 139 19 458 1373 500 181 0
ODI 0 2 1 8 359 910 545 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 62 561 1278 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 1988 8252 740
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3732 6884 139 892 829 17 0 0
OW 0 1005 51 573 691 111 20 0
VODI 0 255 32 304 656 536 319 0
ODI 0 33 8 162 496 561 840 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 275 666 731 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 2133 8369 740


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