Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-10-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94619 4947 36 244 67 0 0 0
OW 0 78 5 92 97 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 15 64 153 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 64 136 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 227 257 0 2
VCDI 0 0 0 2 81 2914 3936 960
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94799 4645 44 213 102 0 0 0
OW 0 81 2 92 85 3 0 0
VODI 0 45 13 68 120 36 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 66 111 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 177 323 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 100 2866 3985 1015
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94559 4618 41 294 102 6 0 0
OW 0 29 15 112 81 8 0 0
VODI 0 3 3 92 141 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 134 81 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 196 390 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 3133 4165 758
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94130 4884 50 279 106 24 0 0
OW 0 39 10 100 89 14 0 0
VODI 0 7 6 64 160 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 34 126 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 151 335 21 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 1821 5154 1376
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94130 4882 49 289 115 26 0 0
OW 0 45 12 90 82 11 0 0
VODI 0 3 6 66 160 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 122 77 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 146 357 24 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 1790 5151 1377

Date: 2018-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94586 4670 29 107 56 0 0 0
OW 0 80 17 128 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 9 113 133 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 199 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 250 146 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 2542 3949 1947
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94586 4662 32 115 59 0 0 0
OW 0 93 13 124 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 10 115 139 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 218 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 229 138 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 2550 3949 1947

Date: 2018-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95023 4583 21 69 84 0 0 0
OW 0 124 24 140 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 8 206 79 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 59 204 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 266 208 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 230 3476 3240 1004
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95023 4476 13 71 89 0 0 0
OW 0 176 19 69 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 19 157 55 3 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 135 132 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 275 123 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 318 3561 3240 1004

Date: 2018-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94375 5174 35 136 68 0 0 0
OW 0 171 16 111 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 13 139 87 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 7 79 139 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 263 246 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 2511 4772 552
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94375 4960 26 108 69 0 0 0
OW 0 258 8 26 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 149 25 139 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 43 5 125 105 20 0 0
CDI 0 8 7 92 241 131 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 169 2624 4780 552

Date: 2018-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93364 5966 31 148 74 0 0 0
OW 0 158 22 147 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 12 135 127 4 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 79 133 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 221 277 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 1314 4982 1671
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93364 5756 32 113 87 0 0 0
OW 0 186 15 111 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 126 7 105 77 5 0 0
ODI 0 67 9 91 107 25 0 0
CDI 0 21 4 82 204 164 22 0
VCDI 0 0 1 27 136 1447 5000 1671


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