Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-10-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125025 18992 117 534 82 0 0 0
OW 0 1486 125 916 300 79 0 0
VODI 0 354 103 1682 1007 72 0 0
ODI 0 8 5 349 1079 406 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 880 1993 717 2
VCDI 0 0 0 2 102 9637 19502 1440
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124922 18368 165 598 146 0 0 0
OW 1 1562 110 1064 281 7 0 0
VODI 0 475 84 1306 1563 87 0 0
ODI 0 45 22 415 1045 453 8 0
CDI 0 13 0 97 1051 1644 713 0
VCDI 0 3 0 9 517 10015 16241 4018
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124172 19121 154 701 161 7 0 0
OW 1 1236 137 796 174 12 0 0
VODI 0 175 71 1820 1073 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 406 2446 280 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 1079 2200 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 296 12982 13886 3593
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121861 19612 182 943 205 24 0 0
OW 15 1317 131 1221 478 17 0 0
VODI 0 149 55 1399 1512 135 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 186 2294 888 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 889 1751 429 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 166 11491 17502 2146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121876 19971 189 1041 231 26 0 0
OW 0 989 124 1136 363 15 0 0
VODI 0 118 56 1338 1447 270 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 236 2216 672 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 1095 1756 283 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 192 11567 17635 2147

Date: 2018-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120277 19712 185 849 237 4 0 0
OW 21 1243 144 1330 768 155 0 0
VODI 0 56 30 751 1936 710 34 0
ODI 0 3 0 87 1165 2086 275 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 608 1747 453 17
VCDI 0 0 0 0 123 9359 18394 4281
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120298 19801 220 1088 407 30 0 0
OW 0 1077 97 1056 554 133 0 0
VODI 0 133 42 788 1886 766 21 0
ODI 0 3 0 87 1208 1821 271 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 651 1836 439 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 131 9475 18425 4279

Date: 2018-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117774 19147 249 1669 501 88 0 0
OW 7 1015 137 922 297 75 12 0
VODI 0 253 72 1216 1163 133 16 0
ODI 0 2 3 143 2403 348 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 792 5082 301 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 292 9260 19409 4225
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117771 18970 304 2254 1022 229 14 0
OW 10 1199 104 874 823 153 23 0
VODI 0 243 48 607 2041 842 76 0
ODI 0 5 5 172 662 2311 322 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 495 2060 701 17
VCDI 0 0 0 0 405 9391 18636 4215

Date: 2018-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116809 18935 179 1446 1079 74 0 0
OW 113 1410 116 701 511 91 12 0
VODI 0 502 116 1069 986 183 17 0
ODI 0 34 16 595 1545 426 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 128 1405 3623 117 9
VCDI 0 0 0 19 204 10059 20951 3545
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116731 18758 217 1656 1595 179 12 0
OW 160 1487 101 851 750 229 18 0
VODI 31 582 94 1055 1516 621 54 0
ODI 0 46 8 221 1048 1899 166 0
CDI 0 8 7 143 498 2062 626 0
VCDI 0 0 0 32 323 9466 20244 3554

Date: 2018-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114582 18979 153 1076 1364 176 0 0
OW 58 2001 162 1044 650 167 42 0
VODI 0 329 78 1192 1328 294 34 0
ODI 0 7 5 380 1462 732 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 971 3509 263 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 130 9405 22135 4263
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114504 18847 210 1490 1757 293 0 0
OW 95 1679 104 848 1001 285 63 0
VODI 41 688 68 1103 1559 904 120 0
ODI 0 81 11 149 931 2079 140 0
CDI 0 21 4 108 418 2156 744 12
VCDI 0 0 1 31 239 8566 21435 4263


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