Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-10-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96631 3613 28 195 85 0 0 0
OW 0 79 6 79 156 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 9 95 191 43 0 0
ODI 0 17 4 44 117 75 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 32 161 394 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 90 1375 3403 2107
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96251 3799 30 178 84 0 0 0
OW 0 101 6 69 140 3 0 0
VODI 0 51 9 88 125 143 0 0
ODI 0 14 5 48 85 138 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 31 152 346 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 1690 3412 2036
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95841 4172 37 180 4 0 0 0
OW 0 72 7 101 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 17 71 155 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 68 188 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 208 392 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 2180 3214 2017
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94661 4989 33 219 120 0 0 0
OW 0 65 1 96 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 15 75 136 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 63 117 80 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 174 304 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 2377 3887 1481
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94661 4964 33 227 101 0 0 0
OW 0 71 1 88 108 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 15 64 138 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 68 109 84 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 177 277 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 2406 3886 1481

Date: 2018-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94703 4807 45 266 69 0 0 0
OW 0 69 2 89 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 18 68 147 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 71 161 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 222 269 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 121 3019 3431 1333
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94703 4783 45 220 55 0 0 0
OW 0 69 2 131 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 14 58 163 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 6 76 156 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 222 227 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 121 3058 3431 1333

Date: 2018-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95032 4382 39 190 50 0 0 0
OW 0 67 3 120 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 15 94 148 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 190 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 194 487 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 2651 4216 977
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95032 4340 35 196 74 0 0 0
OW 0 77 4 108 114 3 0 0
VODI 0 47 16 62 116 40 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 74 120 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 195 290 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 78 2766 4210 977

Date: 2018-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94166 4905 53 312 99 13 0 0
OW 0 33 10 115 83 8 0 0
VODI 0 7 5 71 154 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 140 67 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 152 374 35 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 2556 4949 706
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94166 4887 47 311 115 16 0 0
OW 0 45 15 102 119 11 0 0
VODI 0 13 5 80 150 66 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 30 117 119 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 121 275 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 2547 4938 709

Date: 2018-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94069 5049 56 154 85 0 0 0
OW 0 42 10 116 79 6 0 0
VODI 0 7 5 57 169 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 118 73 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 139 282 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 1536 5129 1807
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94069 4985 49 155 98 1 0 0
OW 0 78 10 64 124 11 0 0
VODI 0 33 9 70 119 89 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 57 72 113 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 137 230 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 1478 5126 1807


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