Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-10-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18354 5672 61 324 64 0 0 0
OW 0 448 42 353 246 0 0 0
VODI 0 143 44 271 492 11 0 0
ODI 0 13 6 144 519 30 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 34 418 773 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 172 12321 4306 574
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18369 5500 52 287 78 0 0 0
OW 58 598 62 390 75 1 0 0
VODI 0 90 29 392 451 3 0 0
ODI 0 15 2 70 495 123 0 0
CDI 0 8 4 18 283 830 87 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 99 10483 6335 572
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18233 6081 61 119 38 0 0 0
OW 0 361 59 378 139 2 0 0
VODI 0 107 22 439 321 2 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 40 509 119 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 24 196 1028 168 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 6185 10307 891
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16854 7136 43 180 8 5 0 0
OW 0 487 64 368 143 48 0 0
VODI 0 152 29 477 350 10 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 116 375 192 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 268 594 423 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 3881 13579 52
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16854 7214 59 224 10 11 0 0
OW 0 358 41 261 124 36 0 0
VODI 0 198 31 492 310 23 0 0
ODI 0 7 8 153 416 183 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 16 277 544 372 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 3933 13630 52

Date: 2018-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17057 6528 72 228 32 0 0 0
OW 0 433 45 398 137 0 0 0
VODI 0 103 32 593 437 31 0 0
ODI 0 14 7 202 359 178 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 42 337 511 374 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 153 2641 12391 2529
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17057 6588 87 307 36 0 0 0
OW 0 329 22 226 97 0 0 0
VODI 0 141 35 542 441 25 0 0
ODI 0 17 12 309 351 178 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 78 357 477 313 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 173 2681 12453 2529

Date: 2018-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16377 7093 58 227 50 0 0 0
OW 0 287 60 287 80 2 0 0
VODI 0 40 20 674 367 5 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 85 876 130 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 14 355 709 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 303 3336 10812 3596
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16377 6969 92 462 126 0 0 0
OW 0 231 13 250 249 2 0 0
VODI 0 153 17 259 638 106 0 0
ODI 0 58 13 163 259 331 0 0
CDI 0 18 3 141 275 419 326 0
VCDI 0 1 0 12 484 3324 10499 3596

Date: 2018-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15558 7466 81 278 57 0 0 0
OW 9 391 60 306 63 2 0 0
VODI 0 45 16 583 399 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 197 935 60 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 582 406 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 196 7277 9603 1216
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15567 7577 106 532 128 0 0 0
OW 0 228 20 349 240 2 0 0
VODI 0 85 24 248 694 54 0 0
ODI 0 12 7 157 569 189 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 91 293 566 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 308 6945 9592 1216

Date: 2018-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14717 7313 108 478 123 0 0 0
OW 21 286 40 564 301 21 0 0
VODI 0 12 9 177 593 146 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 83 634 539 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 441 527 112 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 93 4081 12634 1800
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14737 7392 120 725 375 11 0 0
OW 1 156 20 257 345 117 0 0
VODI 0 60 15 159 434 295 34 0
ODI 0 4 2 89 493 511 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 343 408 246 9
VCDI 0 0 0 22 195 3972 12421 1791


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