Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-10-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128826 15378 118 617 158 0 0 0
OW 0 1810 84 660 590 6 0 0
VODI 0 542 111 1203 1329 255 0 0
ODI 0 71 23 337 1139 416 10 0
CDI 0 8 4 111 1094 2572 180 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 262 16930 9505 2687
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128058 15694 111 543 170 0 0 0
OW 58 2041 119 867 324 10 0 0
VODI 0 555 88 1173 1499 311 0 0
ODI 0 104 18 210 956 726 49 0
CDI 0 14 14 93 645 2455 742 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 160 15316 11310 2608
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128003 17374 130 394 59 0 0 0
OW 0 1140 140 887 241 2 0 0
VODI 0 205 75 1498 1023 13 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 155 1444 250 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 43 607 2772 542 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 10774 16292 2911
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124890 19466 110 519 131 5 0 0
OW 0 1446 128 903 274 48 0 0
VODI 0 354 99 1552 1031 42 0 0
ODI 0 4 11 310 1149 339 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 809 2145 653 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 80 9712 19284 1533
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124890 19366 133 650 120 11 0 0
OW 0 1504 102 738 286 36 0 0
VODI 0 392 100 1556 1004 47 0 0
ODI 0 7 13 321 1198 313 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 40 773 2170 613 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 93 9714 19324 1533

Date: 2018-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125282 18338 157 595 102 0 0 0
OW 0 1660 104 887 260 0 0 0
VODI 0 465 118 1726 1029 42 0 0
ODI 0 16 14 449 1128 320 1 0
CDI 0 1 0 77 1016 1915 620 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 274 9591 16996 3862
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125282 18259 180 742 94 0 0 0
OW 0 1656 72 683 235 0 0 0
VODI 0 540 120 1681 1030 33 0 0
ODI 0 21 21 508 1178 278 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 118 978 2025 575 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 294 9532 17042 3862

Date: 2018-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124657 19120 139 542 102 0 0 0
OW 0 1022 142 812 173 2 0 0
VODI 0 120 65 1967 947 7 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 158 2771 253 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 23 755 2772 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 351 9965 15508 4573
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124657 18238 178 998 218 0 0 0
OW 0 1265 44 833 457 5 0 0
VODI 0 675 94 1070 1638 146 0 0
ODI 0 75 27 396 1003 575 0 0
CDI 0 18 3 192 1180 1514 565 0
VCDI 0 1 0 13 603 10759 15035 4573

Date: 2018-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123236 19351 169 698 157 13 0 0
OW 9 1517 132 868 226 10 0 0
VODI 0 233 87 1696 1167 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 381 2449 441 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 1044 2030 80 3
VCDI 0 0 0 5 251 14022 14792 1922
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123234 19071 211 1239 261 16 0 0
OW 11 1109 68 1008 577 13 0 0
VODI 0 725 69 830 1647 131 0 0
ODI 0 164 22 317 1253 419 5 0
CDI 0 32 18 257 965 1363 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 591 14605 14774 1925

Date: 2018-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121097 19748 206 814 227 0 0 0
OW 21 1269 129 1208 769 27 0 0
VODI 0 133 44 878 1937 344 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 140 1995 1161 159 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 761 1705 480 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 108 9026 19036 3607
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121096 19600 238 1328 738 12 0 0
OW 22 879 63 612 1261 128 0 0
VODI 0 506 52 623 1660 507 34 0
ODI 0 124 16 280 927 1017 86 0
CDI 0 42 10 189 757 1120 404 9
VCDI 0 0 0 26 454 9479 19151 3598


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