Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-09-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98013 3066 11 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 197 18 71 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 22 143 60 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 110 138 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 384 169 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 45 684 2098 3708
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96904 3991 11 26 1 0 0 0
OW 0 234 17 59 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 109 23 142 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 19 11 135 117 0 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 64 350 49 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 130 641 1899 4125
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96882 3908 27 174 1 0 0 0
OW 0 91 12 159 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 8 144 109 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 5 61 187 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 301 251 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 61 1631 2764 2225
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96883 3546 28 192 21 0 0 0
OW 0 93 7 79 175 0 0 0
VODI 0 55 9 90 180 9 0 0
ODI 0 16 3 60 119 50 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 34 191 351 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 100 2000 3077 1716
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96883 3547 27 192 22 0 0 0
OW 0 103 7 74 163 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 10 94 189 11 0 0
ODI 0 14 3 59 115 52 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 36 205 344 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 92 2003 3076 1716

Date: 2018-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96325 3821 29 151 125 0 0 0
OW 0 90 6 63 150 2 0 0
VODI 0 55 10 85 130 139 0 0
ODI 0 14 3 61 72 130 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 29 129 392 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 71 1076 3991 1927
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96325 3829 29 147 181 0 0 0
OW 0 91 5 62 131 27 0 0
VODI 0 48 12 92 84 130 0 0
ODI 0 13 3 59 80 133 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 138 407 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 63 1042 3984 1927

Date: 2018-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95861 4193 38 197 15 0 0 0
OW 0 52 12 80 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 7 78 146 4 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 36 245 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 195 614 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 2214 3074 1873
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95861 4101 36 197 130 0 0 0
OW 0 82 4 69 141 11 0 0
VODI 0 63 11 61 101 140 0 0
ODI 0 21 6 39 109 132 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 33 166 332 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 2249 3065 1873

Date: 2018-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95561 4322 35 198 14 0 0 0
OW 0 79 8 115 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 14 87 155 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 56 180 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 200 297 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 66 2576 3471 1542
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95561 4296 35 239 50 0 0 0
OW 0 78 6 81 193 12 0 0
VODI 0 44 15 75 105 114 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 59 114 113 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 147 248 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 61 2411 3456 1542

Date: 2018-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94619 4947 36 244 67 0 0 0
OW 0 78 5 92 97 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 15 64 153 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 64 136 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 227 257 0 2
VCDI 0 0 0 2 81 2914 3936 960
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94619 4952 39 339 219 9 0 0
OW 0 75 3 29 133 54 0 0
VODI 0 33 15 70 117 138 12 0
ODI 0 0 1 47 118 93 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 154 285 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 2636 3903 962


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