Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-09-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130586 15979 117 298 45 6 0 0
OW 80 1487 146 740 169 10 0 0
VODI 0 364 97 1655 712 38 1 0
ODI 0 16 13 504 1455 217 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 139 1448 7082 297 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 113 8650 9304 5272
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128957 16852 110 318 41 4 0 0
OW 79 1570 151 909 133 12 0 0
VODI 0 380 93 1673 740 45 0 0
ODI 0 36 15 385 1397 247 3 0
CDI 0 1 2 133 1311 5496 462 1
VCDI 0 0 0 18 189 9338 10268 5679
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128394 17108 132 500 57 0 0 0
OW 0 1219 159 826 133 6 0 0
VODI 0 231 77 1896 863 23 0 0
ODI 0 12 8 195 1799 247 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 903 4389 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 85 14103 10213 3352
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128244 16382 131 577 93 0 0 0
OW 0 1651 107 695 476 0 0 0
VODI 0 439 110 1235 1293 229 0 0
ODI 0 43 20 348 1277 335 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 108 1445 2473 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 304 16645 9771 2552
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128244 16722 148 696 185 0 0 0
OW 0 1170 77 579 491 15 0 0
VODI 0 559 112 1046 1079 231 0 0
ODI 0 64 31 522 1345 329 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 120 1447 2650 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 341 16457 9763 2552

Date: 2018-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128109 15901 125 559 202 0 0 0
OW 20 1904 95 869 355 7 0 0
VODI 0 548 99 1036 1693 190 0 0
ODI 0 75 18 290 1147 472 0 0
CDI 0 12 5 92 836 2766 226 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 208 16617 10210 2351
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128126 16313 143 758 289 0 0 0
OW 3 1404 63 665 385 31 0 0
VODI 0 622 104 891 1489 192 0 0
ODI 0 88 27 427 1168 547 0 0
CDI 0 13 5 101 861 2351 268 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 249 16931 10168 2351

Date: 2018-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128279 17043 115 436 89 0 0 0
OW 0 1176 150 715 208 2 0 0
VODI 0 251 69 1650 891 4 0 0
ODI 0 12 9 138 1693 221 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 526 3563 237 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 92 13053 13989 2407
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128278 15614 118 643 315 0 0 0
OW 1 1849 88 539 331 13 0 0
VODI 0 856 92 1373 1093 314 0 0
ODI 0 124 32 267 892 713 0 0
CDI 0 39 13 135 651 1859 555 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 217 13944 13671 2407

Date: 2018-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126632 18329 132 427 51 0 0 0
OW 0 1215 162 1006 254 1 0 0
VODI 0 197 78 1499 1120 22 0 0
ODI 0 5 7 175 1298 297 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 674 2232 784 1
VCDI 0 0 0 1 93 9690 18542 2092
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126527 16882 121 629 228 0 0 0
OW 105 1914 103 485 323 16 0 0
VODI 0 918 138 1603 1115 194 0 0
ODI 0 32 17 323 1016 587 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 93 622 1692 344 5
VCDI 0 0 0 7 186 9753 18973 2088

Date: 2018-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125025 18992 117 534 82 0 0 0
OW 0 1486 125 916 300 79 0 0
VODI 0 354 103 1682 1007 72 0 0
ODI 0 8 5 349 1079 406 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 880 1993 717 2
VCDI 0 0 0 2 102 9637 19502 1440
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124766 17703 120 716 323 55 0 0
OW 259 1935 75 564 277 91 0 0
VODI 0 1143 137 1614 945 231 12 0
ODI 0 59 17 488 1034 559 21 0
CDI 0 0 1 134 700 1729 397 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 171 9522 19800 1442


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