Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-09-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97919 3369 19 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 150 20 92 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 21 202 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 123 222 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 361 618 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 2613 2984 211
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97860 3331 16 64 1 0 0 0
OW 0 148 25 113 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 20 194 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 78 229 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 308 498 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1635 2862 1545
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97231 3934 17 46 13 0 0 0
OW 0 136 36 114 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 21 229 77 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 75 249 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 346 635 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 769 3098 2031
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97758 3391 12 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 192 20 70 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 25 188 43 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 108 155 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 390 278 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 663 3291 2388
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97758 3368 12 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 207 21 48 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 22 196 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 113 139 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 391 217 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 725 3291 2388

Date: 2018-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97385 3593 13 29 1 0 0 0
OW 0 207 21 75 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 84 21 152 37 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 9 112 138 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 342 128 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 597 1995 4036
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97385 3558 18 29 1 0 0 0
OW 0 203 12 64 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 112 23 140 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 21 11 116 121 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 75 330 73 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 99 652 1995 4036

Date: 2018-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96770 4271 17 35 0 0 0 0
OW 0 153 20 98 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 19 180 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 5 99 203 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 399 169 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 1243 2710 2512
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96770 3921 8 26 2 0 0 0
OW 0 237 9 28 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 211 12 93 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 88 18 98 43 0 0 0
CDI 0 27 12 145 223 13 0 0
VCDI 0 5 2 47 418 1399 2710 2512

Date: 2018-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97038 3590 19 162 20 0 0 0
OW 0 105 15 110 95 0 0 0
VODI 0 42 10 112 147 5 0 0
ODI 0 9 5 61 130 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 207 325 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 97 1417 3615 1676
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97038 3313 13 93 3 0 0 0
OW 0 131 7 100 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 122 6 88 155 2 0 0
ODI 0 91 2 46 85 23 0 0
CDI 0 79 11 52 131 190 0 2
VCDI 0 10 10 100 281 1580 3621 1674

Date: 2018-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96631 3613 28 195 85 0 0 0
OW 0 79 6 79 156 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 9 95 191 43 0 0
ODI 0 17 4 44 117 75 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 32 161 394 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 90 1375 3403 2107
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96631 3419 25 176 75 0 0 0
OW 0 99 5 68 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 83 2 64 178 19 0 0
ODI 0 70 2 31 124 37 0 0
CDI 0 65 6 50 117 100 0 0
VCDI 0 26 8 57 213 1731 3419 2107


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