Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-09-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17494 7032 69 256 46 0 0 0
OW 0 827 51 306 144 3 0 0
VODI 0 381 46 588 220 101 0 0
ODI 0 39 20 309 990 839 0 0
CDI 0 39 5 52 863 4863 180 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 81 5917 3997 108
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18152 6070 59 214 55 2 0 0
OW 3 1251 55 204 140 15 0 0
VODI 0 321 52 455 265 128 0 0
ODI 0 31 17 241 784 875 15 0
CDI 0 34 6 35 368 4367 468 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 105 7313 3626 132
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19456 5930 94 280 89 1 0 0
OW 38 243 38 179 130 7 0 0
VODI 0 66 19 385 252 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 223 649 173 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 396 4456 464 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 113 5497 5649 942
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19420 5876 75 228 49 5 0 0
OW 85 414 42 195 113 8 0 0
VODI 0 112 28 323 300 39 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 245 526 132 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 554 2680 311 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 84 6762 5757 1407
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19473 5889 74 203 49 10 0 0
OW 32 387 43 211 100 9 0 0
VODI 0 125 27 315 312 31 1 0
ODI 0 7 5 260 408 148 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 652 2093 277 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 105 7335 5792 1407

Date: 2018-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19351 5800 69 153 31 0 0 0
OW 75 593 62 218 71 6 0 0
VODI 0 153 32 403 223 24 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 227 548 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 79 837 1906 214 1
VCDI 0 0 0 6 72 7091 6379 1174
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19405 5706 60 166 37 4 0 0
OW 21 648 61 153 58 5 0 0
VODI 0 189 39 432 206 19 0 0
ODI 0 6 5 237 446 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 94 907 1273 164 2
VCDI 0 0 0 4 128 7731 6429 1173

Date: 2018-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18561 6237 67 211 21 0 0 0
OW 0 516 64 232 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 81 43 563 195 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 92 922 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 307 2330 172 3
VCDI 0 0 0 7 42 6684 6608 1807
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18554 6221 77 237 31 2 0 0
OW 7 535 62 261 62 5 0 0
VODI 0 78 35 448 339 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 117 504 90 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 515 997 365 15
VCDI 0 0 0 11 80 7948 6414 1795

Date: 2018-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18645 5705 69 297 39 0 0 0
OW 0 305 61 402 152 0 0 0
VODI 0 80 27 477 344 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 128 727 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 643 818 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 70 10390 5644 713
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18602 5548 70 362 72 0 0 0
OW 43 415 44 337 210 0 0 0
VODI 0 116 35 449 352 25 0 0
ODI 0 10 6 119 549 83 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 43 640 589 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 152 10583 5497 713

Date: 2018-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18354 5672 61 324 64 0 0 0
OW 0 448 42 353 246 0 0 0
VODI 0 143 44 271 492 11 0 0
ODI 0 13 6 144 519 30 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 34 418 773 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 172 12321 4306 574
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18309 5748 83 476 191 0 0 0
OW 45 336 36 286 311 2 0 0
VODI 0 151 20 224 537 36 0 0
ODI 0 42 14 85 461 193 0 0
CDI 0 4 2 57 227 699 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 184 12205 4237 574


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