Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-09-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16230 7095 57 183 11 0 0 0
OW 0 1503 72 387 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 295 68 1160 375 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 5 279 2671 191 0 0
CDI 0 8 2 67 2496 4958 156 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 3 5407 2026 72
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16318 6945 55 186 13 0 0 0
OW 0 1621 90 445 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 238 55 1068 486 3 0 0
ODI 0 34 8 261 2314 218 0 0
CDI 0 3 5 105 3100 3418 173 1
VCDI 0 0 0 47 86 6002 2409 91
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17365 7417 73 181 1 0 0 0
OW 0 582 75 414 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 148 47 937 259 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 242 2649 141 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 1530 5172 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 52 6127 2332 1
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17602 7097 70 226 20 0 0 0
OW 0 760 57 310 103 0 0 0
VODI 0 350 55 600 298 16 0 0
ODI 0 33 13 374 1519 434 0 0
CDI 0 16 5 64 1569 4670 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 77 5888 3411 198
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17602 7054 78 252 31 0 0 0
OW 0 757 41 310 110 0 0 0
VODI 0 352 57 501 294 32 0 0
ODI 0 77 19 393 1122 451 0 0
CDI 0 16 5 116 1946 4636 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 83 5889 3411 198

Date: 2018-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17981 6418 68 207 83 0 0 0
OW 0 985 54 278 146 31 0 0
VODI 0 327 38 495 259 164 0 0
ODI 0 28 17 234 829 939 0 0
CDI 0 44 4 38 590 4514 557 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 72 6019 4200 246
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17981 6372 74 252 121 1 0 0
OW 0 922 35 226 136 48 0 0
VODI 0 376 46 406 209 169 0 0
ODI 0 90 23 287 591 810 1 0
CDI 0 42 3 82 849 4341 565 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 73 6298 4191 246

Date: 2018-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18362 7090 68 252 26 0 0 0
OW 0 299 65 244 79 0 0 0
VODI 0 60 20 496 258 11 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 140 885 96 0 0
CDI 0 11 4 28 299 6041 288 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 93 6112 4188 344
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18357 5576 66 286 99 0 0 0
OW 5 1194 23 166 148 10 0 0
VODI 0 593 42 309 226 129 0 0
ODI 0 86 23 266 459 822 7 0
CDI 0 8 2 121 559 3598 425 0
VCDI 0 6 3 14 149 7701 4044 344

Date: 2018-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19916 5417 91 247 82 2 0 0
OW 79 308 36 164 138 10 0 0
VODI 0 87 21 369 238 58 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 248 567 145 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 62 501 3614 332 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 102 6514 5385 1121
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19709 3954 74 227 172 31 0 0
OW 217 941 24 144 99 63 0 0
VODI 69 716 26 205 217 160 1 0
ODI 0 175 17 243 253 386 142 0
CDI 0 28 9 249 766 2576 510 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 121 7127 5067 1121

Date: 2018-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19400 5881 73 162 37 6 0 0
OW 80 550 54 190 60 10 0 0
VODI 0 153 33 382 235 26 1 0
ODI 0 3 4 290 504 49 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 99 737 2261 218 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 68 6798 5937 1558
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19169 4376 64 198 76 25 0 0
OW 240 1003 26 110 82 22 3 0
VODI 71 822 37 221 192 93 11 0
ODI 0 297 20 167 280 151 36 0
CDI 0 89 17 376 886 1509 366 1
VCDI 0 0 0 53 125 7350 5745 1557


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