Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-09-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125227 18585 107 317 19 0 0 0
OW 0 2381 176 960 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 455 111 2560 810 1 0 0
ODI 0 18 6 893 5665 353 1 0
CDI 0 8 2 67 4663 10435 310 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 3 8959 3741 116
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125686 17812 113 354 32 0 0 0
OW 0 2607 189 1085 123 0 0 0
VODI 0 416 101 2422 998 4 0 0
ODI 0 34 10 947 4923 319 0 0
CDI 0 3 5 105 5580 8086 198 1
VCDI 0 0 0 47 86 9890 4680 192
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126868 19007 144 356 9 0 0 0
OW 0 1064 183 1043 94 0 0 0
VODI 0 222 72 2608 755 3 0 0
ODI 0 3 4 442 5620 273 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 2465 11622 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 52 7373 6574 9
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128123 17582 127 427 26 0 0 0
OW 0 1391 175 875 176 3 0 0
VODI 0 458 92 2268 711 31 0 0
ODI 0 36 17 680 3422 826 0 0
CDI 0 16 5 64 3165 9668 96 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 80 9333 6612 563
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128123 17574 153 496 41 0 0 0
OW 0 1316 128 867 169 2 0 0
VODI 0 486 105 2050 725 45 0 0
ODI 0 91 25 780 2963 957 0 0
CDI 0 16 5 119 3597 8996 134 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 85 9861 6574 563

Date: 2018-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128461 16963 112 355 92 0 0 0
OW 0 1741 155 906 209 44 0 0
VODI 0 494 92 2011 812 197 4 0
ODI 0 52 26 530 2298 1303 17 0
CDI 0 44 4 69 1737 9014 768 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 88 9949 8233 267
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128461 17011 131 503 128 1 0 0
OW 0 1545 118 770 205 48 0 0
VODI 0 566 102 1837 714 204 1 0
ODI 0 130 35 644 2026 1313 11 0
CDI 0 42 3 118 2026 8245 860 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 137 10696 8150 267

Date: 2018-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128667 18382 126 389 48 0 0 0
OW 0 936 182 813 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 151 75 2194 636 13 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 261 2480 221 0 0
CDI 0 11 4 29 841 12131 386 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 93 7910 7473 2491
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128662 16277 123 521 123 0 0 0
OW 5 2085 101 549 191 10 0 0
VODI 0 959 123 1768 607 142 0 0
ODI 0 148 37 681 1553 1086 7 0
CDI 0 9 3 155 1506 7788 548 0
VCDI 0 6 3 14 214 11249 7304 2491

Date: 2018-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130459 16484 143 409 97 2 0 0
OW 79 1014 142 741 214 10 0 0
VODI 0 240 83 1860 567 89 0 0
ODI 0 8 8 456 1770 280 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 1604 8587 419 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 102 8190 9564 3339
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130252 14297 124 397 185 31 0 0
OW 217 1882 99 560 142 63 0 0
VODI 69 1271 103 1520 581 186 1 0
ODI 0 264 39 749 1148 513 142 0
CDI 0 32 11 298 2175 5704 528 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 123 10661 9315 3339

Date: 2018-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130586 15979 117 298 45 6 0 0
OW 80 1487 146 740 169 10 0 0
VODI 0 364 97 1655 712 38 1 0
ODI 0 16 13 504 1455 217 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 139 1448 7082 297 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 113 8650 9304 5272
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130355 13719 98 334 125 25 0 0
OW 240 2154 98 535 171 22 3 0
VODI 71 1439 110 1317 696 113 11 0
ODI 0 443 48 648 1001 349 36 0
CDI 0 91 19 452 1821 4483 430 1
VCDI 0 0 0 53 128 11011 9127 5271


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