Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-09-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97929 3786 10 17 1 0 0 0
OW 0 210 36 106 9 3 0 0
VODI 0 37 19 349 110 14 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 475 93 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 194 3220 650 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1477 278 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97917 3763 14 17 1 0 0 0
OW 0 192 29 115 10 6 0 0
VODI 0 43 20 249 175 23 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 443 75 49 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 70 2237 1691 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1491 416 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98208 3531 14 12 1 0 0 0
OW 0 155 29 102 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 14 255 70 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 383 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 118 2008 278 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1806 2023 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98081 3486 21 27 1 0 0 0
OW 0 142 22 126 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 13 208 109 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 344 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 160 1883 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2766 1544 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98081 3532 26 60 1 0 0 0
OW 0 107 20 134 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 10 188 131 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 357 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 116 1491 83 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3148 1536 0

Date: 2018-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97473 3932 25 70 10 0 0 0
OW 0 146 28 125 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 7 180 118 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 295 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 252 1336 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2956 1977 35
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97473 3978 32 115 12 0 0 0
OW 0 105 21 113 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 7 169 117 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 339 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 193 1144 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 3150 1959 35

Date: 2018-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96801 4485 36 84 9 0 0 0
OW 0 124 25 112 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 17 219 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 23 469 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 168 1882 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1020 3437 5
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96801 4515 42 168 20 0 0 0
OW 0 103 28 99 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 9 150 142 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 336 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 192 945 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1934 3403 5

Date: 2018-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97816 3598 18 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 144 30 105 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 14 215 51 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 70 338 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 280 1274 114 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1205 3194 555
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97816 3607 29 122 29 0 0 0
OW 0 130 18 72 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 15 175 100 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 47 283 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 202 877 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 1569 3158 555

Date: 2018-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97919 3369 19 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 150 20 92 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 21 202 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 123 222 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 361 618 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 2613 2984 211
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97919 3456 38 193 61 0 0 0
OW 0 83 14 88 78 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 8 143 128 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 48 244 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 107 992 103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 2135 2883 211


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