Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-09-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15316 7819 52 206 7 0 0 0
OW 0 1301 56 314 59 4 0 0
VODI 0 484 71 1095 343 11 0 0
ODI 0 67 12 392 2166 110 2 0
CDI 0 14 2 113 2883 2261 840 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 683 6895 2288 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15830 7232 57 202 6 0 0 0
OW 0 1342 58 390 49 1 0 0
VODI 0 483 63 1103 294 8 0 0
ODI 0 69 12 336 2124 71 3 0
CDI 0 22 4 111 1949 3254 733 2
VCDI 0 2 1 42 792 7203 2018 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16200 7264 49 158 2 0 0 0
OW 0 1275 87 376 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 223 54 1339 308 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 200 2991 220 0 0
CDI 0 6 4 65 1824 5593 555 4
VCDI 0 0 0 19 6 4412 2607 1
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16225 7227 45 152 10 0 0 0
OW 0 1407 94 376 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 268 59 1247 305 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 244 2745 246 0 0
CDI 0 11 4 54 2072 5623 231 1
VCDI 0 0 0 6 2 4979 2162 29
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16225 7461 62 226 20 0 0 0
OW 0 1159 76 335 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 279 58 1221 353 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 240 2707 148 0 0
CDI 0 11 4 50 2051 5400 211 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 3 5300 2182 30

Date: 2018-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16220 7103 53 185 13 0 0 0
OW 0 1504 92 476 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 246 50 1152 434 0 0 0
ODI 0 28 7 271 2493 213 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 81 2824 4051 137 0
VCDI 0 0 0 45 11 5744 2330 50
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16220 7630 75 266 28 0 0 0
OW 0 970 83 460 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 256 38 1103 452 1 0 0
ODI 0 25 6 270 2419 124 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 66 2823 3950 117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 45 52 5933 2350 50

Date: 2018-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16746 7847 75 178 3 0 0 0
OW 0 613 84 432 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 84 42 1123 245 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 173 3290 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 1515 5567 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 10 5437 2227 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16746 7141 84 224 23 0 0 0
OW 0 1063 55 401 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 314 54 953 420 0 0 0
ODI 0 24 6 251 1862 321 0 0
CDI 0 3 4 87 2503 3449 10 0
VCDI 0 0 2 50 220 7296 2239 0

Date: 2018-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17570 7242 59 201 2 0 0 0
OW 0 717 63 326 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 227 66 762 286 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 4 291 2196 132 0 0
CDI 0 12 3 63 1680 4851 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 6384 2591 6
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17570 6242 64 201 21 0 0 0
OW 0 1264 35 297 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 628 68 629 246 0 0 0
ODI 0 52 21 390 1486 48 0 0
CDI 0 16 4 92 2073 2655 0 0
VCDI 0 6 3 34 395 8664 2591 6

Date: 2018-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17494 7032 69 256 46 0 0 0
OW 0 827 51 306 144 3 0 0
VODI 0 381 46 588 220 101 0 0
ODI 0 39 20 309 990 839 0 0
CDI 0 39 5 52 863 4863 180 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 81 5917 3997 108
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17476 6175 64 212 56 1 0 0
OW 18 1166 31 236 83 11 0 0
VODI 0 772 58 530 248 45 0 0
ODI 0 156 31 410 735 297 0 0
CDI 0 12 3 111 1075 1631 131 0
VCDI 0 37 4 12 147 9738 4046 108


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