Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-09-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124791 18547 105 280 8 0 0 0
OW 0 2206 175 891 119 7 0 0
VODI 0 658 131 2926 1004 34 2 0
ODI 0 67 12 670 5343 540 8 0
CDI 0 14 2 113 4527 8866 1490 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 712 10037 2763 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125952 17327 104 316 8 0 0 0
OW 0 2215 176 1085 163 7 0 0
VODI 0 583 112 2534 1405 38 3 0
ODI 0 69 12 491 4948 702 52 0
CDI 0 22 4 111 3649 8313 2424 2
VCDI 0 2 1 42 835 10907 2434 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126653 17371 102 246 8 0 0 0
OW 0 1970 213 884 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 277 93 2908 665 2 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 501 7131 501 0 0
CDI 0 6 4 65 3513 11448 833 4
VCDI 0 0 0 19 6 6949 4630 1
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125884 18140 95 249 11 0 0 0
OW 0 2262 192 898 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 443 113 2688 663 1 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 877 5922 412 0 0
CDI 0 11 4 54 4299 11293 332 1
VCDI 0 0 0 6 2 8334 3778 29
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125884 18641 118 377 21 0 0 0
OW 0 1743 176 855 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 454 102 2587 764 1 0 0
ODI 0 11 5 896 5490 307 0 0
CDI 0 11 4 50 4611 10762 349 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 3 8970 3761 30

Date: 2018-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125585 18119 99 335 34 0 0 0
OW 0 2453 192 1072 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 398 94 2509 945 0 0 0
ODI 0 28 8 831 5379 335 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 83 5536 8704 154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 45 13 9615 4307 85
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125585 18829 139 477 52 0 0 0
OW 0 1679 165 1016 88 0 0 0
VODI 0 463 82 2367 961 3 0 0
ODI 0 27 7 902 5022 211 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 68 5814 8776 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 45 54 9664 4309 85

Date: 2018-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125978 19497 147 364 16 0 0 0
OW 0 1112 195 1083 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 154 77 2966 627 5 0 0
ODI 0 5 7 278 7014 193 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 2261 11956 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 10 6735 6101 5
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125978 18106 152 470 47 0 0 0
OW 0 1957 138 859 136 3 0 0
VODI 0 678 121 2204 950 15 0 0
ODI 0 24 9 1070 3956 446 1 0
CDI 0 3 4 98 4694 8802 281 0
VCDI 0 0 2 50 220 9623 5946 5

Date: 2018-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128024 17917 104 317 8 0 0 0
OW 0 1395 178 821 104 0 0 0
VODI 0 323 102 2354 800 12 0 0
ODI 0 12 8 614 4742 188 0 0
CDI 0 12 3 63 3012 10454 118 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 8406 6317 561
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128024 15918 122 386 52 0 0 0
OW 0 2318 81 611 154 2 0 0
VODI 0 1341 149 1718 668 11 0 0
ODI 0 60 36 1234 3023 143 0 0
CDI 0 16 4 186 4441 8170 156 0
VCDI 0 6 3 34 407 10734 6279 561

Date: 2018-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127815 17683 123 462 66 0 0 0
OW 0 1465 156 936 227 22 0 0
VODI 0 530 92 2077 736 147 0 0
ODI 0 47 27 649 2544 1266 5 0
CDI 0 39 5 74 2266 9562 263 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 117 10055 7273 319
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127797 15741 119 474 126 1 0 0
OW 18 2164 78 538 206 14 0 0
VODI 0 1619 153 1526 617 103 0 0
ODI 0 191 46 1421 1978 480 0 0
CDI 0 12 3 227 2812 6248 320 0
VCDI 0 37 4 12 217 14206 7221 319


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