Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-08-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15532 7320 62 226 12 0 0 0
OW 0 901 82 467 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 166 64 1436 541 1 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 139 2049 125 3 0
CDI 0 3 1 64 2373 3890 737 0
VCDI 0 1 1 71 163 3628 4749 1000
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15702 7342 58 202 13 0 0 0
OW 0 847 65 557 85 3 0 0
VODI 0 124 50 1152 767 45 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 109 1962 150 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 49 2009 3963 856 0
VCDI 0 0 0 64 136 4751 4349 451
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15247 8093 54 193 5 0 0 0
OW 0 836 80 366 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 193 65 1486 313 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 213 2742 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 1545 4296 547 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 58 5772 3623 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15378 7901 53 167 4 0 0 0
OW 0 1182 61 313 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 468 67 1207 276 10 0 0
ODI 0 41 12 367 2349 50 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 84 2423 2838 788 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 429 6386 2956 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15378 8018 63 194 7 0 0 0
OW 0 928 51 361 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 601 67 1040 252 10 0 0
ODI 0 45 12 456 2152 58 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 86 2562 2710 646 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 507 6506 3098 0

Date: 2018-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15522 7577 49 215 10 0 0 0
OW 0 1369 54 355 44 3 0 0
VODI 0 502 66 1054 317 12 0 0
ODI 0 53 11 349 2212 69 0 0
CDI 0 23 4 99 2450 2694 824 1
VCDI 0 0 0 23 838 7528 1539 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15522 7724 53 277 10 0 0 0
OW 0 959 46 328 52 2 0 0
VODI 0 755 67 837 288 14 0 0
ODI 0 58 14 519 2041 75 1 0
CDI 0 28 4 115 2391 2649 785 1
VCDI 0 0 0 19 1089 7566 1577 0

Date: 2018-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16209 7079 41 154 2 0 0 0
OW 0 1404 77 237 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 276 66 1438 263 1 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 178 3165 219 0 0
CDI 0 16 3 72 1583 6126 262 3
VCDI 0 0 0 6 4 4380 2572 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16209 6998 61 279 6 0 0 0
OW 0 919 38 306 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 748 70 821 347 6 0 0
ODI 0 94 16 494 1921 55 4 0
CDI 0 20 4 143 1852 3421 762 3
VCDI 0 2 1 42 854 7244 2068 0

Date: 2018-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16880 6638 45 159 6 0 0 0
OW 0 1313 85 403 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 227 51 1273 314 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 219 2842 259 0 0
CDI 0 5 4 65 2077 5090 715 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 1 4585 2550 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16880 6315 62 274 10 0 0 0
OW 0 997 35 310 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 761 71 822 300 3 0 0
ODI 0 105 12 520 1731 81 0 0
CDI 0 8 7 173 2212 2697 1069 0
VCDI 0 0 0 43 948 7153 2196 0

Date: 2018-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16230 7095 57 183 11 0 0 0
OW 0 1503 72 387 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 295 68 1160 375 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 5 279 2671 191 0 0
CDI 0 8 2 67 2496 4958 156 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 3 5407 2026 72
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16230 7038 85 312 13 0 0 0
OW 0 985 19 346 109 0 0 0
VODI 0 697 72 746 364 10 0 0
ODI 0 151 16 466 1538 67 0 0
CDI 0 31 7 178 2485 2538 171 9
VCDI 0 17 5 57 1089 7941 2011 63


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