Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-08-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124986 17101 103 279 14 0 0 0
OW 12 2032 180 823 93 0 0 0
VODI 2 327 131 3547 1236 7 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 359 5610 627 3 0
CDI 0 3 1 64 2914 8083 3452 80
VCDI 0 1 1 71 163 4269 8752 1713
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125254 17096 108 273 16 0 0 0
OW 13 2006 156 1073 140 3 0 0
VODI 0 274 123 2989 1783 52 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 324 5367 612 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 49 2755 9352 3011 0
VCDI 0 0 0 64 136 6638 6925 451
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125446 17954 95 271 6 0 0 0
OW 0 1597 210 877 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 247 105 3652 761 7 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 438 6668 246 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 2597 11679 979 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 58 8502 4535 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125438 18005 100 264 7 0 0 0
OW 0 1929 187 941 111 3 0 0
VODI 0 591 105 3116 908 42 3 0
ODI 0 41 12 662 5664 479 15 0
CDI 0 5 2 84 4054 9248 1688 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 430 9578 3334 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125438 18240 127 347 9 0 0 0
OW 0 1564 148 978 100 3 0 0
VODI 0 717 117 2743 822 40 3 0
ODI 0 45 12 912 5462 501 14 0
CDI 0 5 2 86 4267 8991 1528 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 514 9815 3495 0

Date: 2018-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125232 18084 97 302 11 0 0 0
OW 0 2269 170 1000 107 9 0 0
VODI 0 642 130 2669 1223 35 3 0
ODI 0 53 11 625 5059 669 38 0
CDI 0 23 4 99 3844 8232 2632 1
VCDI 0 0 0 23 838 10436 2478 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125232 18423 110 429 11 0 0 0
OW 0 1654 161 973 111 5 0 0
VODI 0 908 123 2240 1083 40 2 0
ODI 0 58 14 941 5015 673 41 0
CDI 0 28 4 116 3771 7899 2660 1
VCDI 0 0 0 19 1091 10764 2448 0

Date: 2018-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126615 17157 78 208 3 0 0 0
OW 0 2083 214 717 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 328 110 3094 632 6 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 271 7674 525 0 0
CDI 0 16 3 72 2845 12485 636 3
VCDI 0 0 0 6 4 6267 4943 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126615 17027 123 460 10 0 0 0
OW 0 1552 143 914 241 0 0 0
VODI 0 890 119 2078 1295 62 0 0
ODI 0 99 18 731 4728 906 43 0
CDI 0 20 4 143 3703 7642 2708 3
VCDI 0 2 1 42 1225 10673 2828 0

Date: 2018-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127207 16930 85 232 11 0 0 0
OW 0 2084 204 900 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 343 95 2803 619 1 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 692 6452 481 0 0
CDI 0 5 4 65 4173 10708 838 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 1 7788 4242 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127207 16344 120 461 11 0 0 0
OW 0 1812 114 837 189 0 0 0
VODI 0 1080 133 2204 966 58 0 0
ODI 0 121 17 995 4484 467 17 0
CDI 0 8 7 175 4284 6827 2292 0
VCDI 0 0 0 43 1378 11626 2771 0

Date: 2018-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125227 18585 107 317 19 0 0 0
OW 0 2381 176 960 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 455 111 2560 810 1 0 0
ODI 0 18 6 893 5665 353 1 0
CDI 0 8 2 67 4663 10435 310 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 3 8959 3741 116
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125227 18305 155 594 38 0 0 0
OW 0 1830 72 762 259 0 0 0
VODI 0 1107 144 2036 1049 62 2 0
ODI 0 157 19 1185 3582 398 37 0
CDI 0 31 7 192 4675 5879 1127 53
VCDI 0 17 5 57 1627 13409 2886 63


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